Week 8 sides and totals
Plus a Week 7 recap and our $100 Underdog winner
This season has me on perma-tilt. My big takeaway from the Week 2 debacle was I erred by doing sweeping, universal move toward unders with seven such bets. But through seven weeks, Week 2 is a massive outlier as the highest-scoring week, and every other week just keeps being a viable landscape for that exact possibility.
Scoring was still down in Week 7, such that unders went 8-5 even in an environment where the game totals had definitely shifted, and we had gross numbers across the board. I took two overs as a result, and those went 1-1, but I mean things aren’t much better in Week 8, where our two lowest games have totals of 35 and 35.5.
Basically any type of justification for missed bets is going to come across biased, but I really can’t get away from the obvious conclusion here that my read in Week 2 was accurate, but my timing was just off — too early, if anything — and getting bit so hard by the decision to be heavy on unders was a catastrophic outcome in how it’s influenced my bets since, in a landscape that was ripe for the picking, in the way my initial analysis figured, every other week this year but the one where I went heavy. I try to stay optimistic around here, but that shit’s frustrating.
I also missed my two sides last week, bringing me to 12-10 on sides (and underdog moneylines) so far, while my over/unders sit at 2-18, due to a significant over bias in the weeks immediately following the Week 2 debacle, where I’ve worked my way to 1-8 on overs alongside my 1-10 record on unders.
Last week’s 1-3 record brings us to 13-15 since the start of Week 3, so I’ve been slightly worse than churning water since I “drew a line” on the tracker. But again, that’s entirely due to chasing my tail on over/unders, which has been maddening (I’m 11-6 on sides since the start of Week 3).
This isn’t just me venting, to be clear. I wrote about the idea of feeling out of position analytically last week, and this is an admission I still don’t feel well-positioned to read the market (despite my overall analytical results, with the macro scoring trend and my record on sides, generally being closer to in line with past seasons than my results indicate). And I recognized this concern as early as the intro to Week 3, after the disastrous Week 2, where I was aware it could impact my future results and I wanted to avoid that. Unfortunately, that led to me steering away from the analysis that got me in trouble, when it proved to be sound.
So what I’m saying is while I’ll keep doing the picks for those interested, I’m honestly not confident in what I’m giving out, and I want to continue to be clear on that. I’ve written before I struggle with conviction, particularly in an industry where people seem — from my vantage point — way too confident, by and large. But in this case, what I missed was the blind certainty I was right in the face of the disastrous Week 2 results (which feels like absolute madness, but we all know there are analysts out there that would have martingaled unders in Week 3).
I appreciate the kind words some of you have sent, but a big part of my point is I understand, logically, where I’m at. This is a poor run of results. And I’ve tried a few different things to get out of the rut. I’m not sure there’s an answer there, at least in the near term.
Underdog weekly winner
This week’s $100 Underdog winner is Discord user name Rudt. Congrats! That will be deposited directly into your UD account.
For anyone who hasn’t signed up yet, sign up at this form one time this season and you’ll be entered into our weekly $100 giveaways all year long.
Let’s get to the Week 8 picks. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Colts moneyline, +115 (PointsBet)
This is probably my favorite pick of the week, as we’re getting a home underdog with what I perceive to be a significant coaching advantage, and where the models I think have both sides wrong, probably overvaluing the Saints at this point and simultaneously undervaluing what the Colts are with Gardner Minshew, or at least might become.
Shane Steichen has shown a real ability to adapt to personnel so far in his first season, which I’ve been impressed with. Zack Moss is banged up, but that might actually be favorable for the Colts as we could get Jonathan Taylor turned loose here. Rookie Josh Downs looks like a hit, and joins Michael Pittman to make for a stronger WR duo than the Colts have had over the past few years. The Colts also play with pace, always a plus, and have a solid line advantage while they have the ball, per ETR’s Brandon Thorn.
New Orleans has the much stronger defense, but they also haven’t faced many high-end offenses, which isn’t what the Colts are, but still. The Colts aren’t getting enough love at home here, especially when you’re talking about Derek Carr and a questionable offense on the other sideline. It’s worth noting the Saints are getting back their offensive tackles, and the Colts aren’t a high-end defensive unit, but I still like the Colts at home here.