Week 3 sides and totals
Plus a recap of a tough Week 2
I can’t say I’ve ever had a week like Week 2. I’ve only been doing the public picks thing for three years, and I only tend to average 4-5 bets per week, but even at lower volume I didn’t have a week all last year without a single winning bet. In two years at OddsChecker, I only had one week where I picked more than two games that went winless (that was an 0-4 week, and then I had some playoff weeks at 0-2 and those sorts of things, as well).
In Week 2, I placed nine bets, seven of which were on unders. The idea was fairly simple; I was buying into the trends from Week 1, even despite lines coming down for Week 2. The week prior, during the Thursday night opener, I had the over in Lions-Chiefs. I watched that game and was struck by how reminiscent of the 2022 scoring environment it was to me. I was traveling in Vegas, and my picks for Sunday of Week 1 were already out, but I had a thought that I wished I was on more unders. There was definitely some confirmation bias of that thought when unders went 12-4 in Week 1.
So in Week 2, I went heavier than I tend to, because I wanted to play that wider trend, and the idea was to limit variance by spreading things out. I’ve never done that, played a week heavily in one direction, with something like seven unders. In terms of lessons learned, I can honestly say it was a complete divergence from my typical process, so it’s fairly simple to say, “Don’t do that again.” And it proved disastrous when the over hit in 13 of 16 Week 2 games, including all seven where I was on the under. My other two picks — sides — missed by 0.5 and 1.0 points. In a week where I raised my volume to about double what I typically do, I went 0-9.
There were definitely bad bets in there, but I could also point to a few that could have went the other way. And yet, the results are what they are. We talk a lot about the ups and downs of betting, but even understanding that conceptually, I take bad results hard. I’m hypercompetitive, and I don’t accept failure well. It’s a personality flaw that I’ve improved at in life — being a parent has helped more than any other thing I’ve done — but it’s definitely ingrained in my DNA. It’s frankly been a tough week thinking through this, including how I’d write this intro.
To be clear, I’m really not looking for sympathy. But while I could spend another few hundred words self-flagellating, it feels far more productive to talk about where to go from here. First, there is the clear lesson to take about getting too cute with the seven unders. Stick to your process.
Secondly, there’s my anxiety-inducing record of 1-13 through two weeks, after the 1-4 week in Week 1. That’s a big hole to dig out of if I want to keep my streak of three straight seasons in the black picking sides and totals alive for year four.
But what I realized is that can’t be my goal. And it won’t be. I can’t try to dig out of that hole. Let me explain.
My younger brother was always a super good athlete, and at one point he worked toward becoming a pro golfer. He never made it — it’s a very difficult process, as might be expected, and one of his biggest roadblocks was being in his later 20s at the time (after serving in the Coast Guard), and that being seen as too old for college golf. Essentially, he got some tryouts with college teams, and could play with their best guys, but he learned in no uncertain terms that his age was a problem given those programs only have a certain number of spots, and they essentially want younger athletes they can develop.
Anyway, that’s not part of the story, other than to say he was (and is) really freaking good at golf. But he still starts some rounds poorly, because that’s golf. And when he does, he has this trick. He draws a vertical line on the scorecard, and allows himself to mentally start over from there. His goal then becomes to shoot below par from that point on out. If that’s after two holes, or seven, or whatever, the point of the line is to say, “Those results are banked, and I’m going to focus on playing good golf from this hole through the end of the round.”
I’m drawing a line in my bet tracker this week. The first two weeks have been terrible, and there is no way to change those. But if I worry about trying to make up those picks and improve my record in one or two weeks, I’ll just stretch myself. The best move for me is to focus on what I can control, starting this week, and make some good picks.
Let’s get to the Week 3 plays.
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Over 43.5, -110 (widely available)
Gardner Minshew gets the start for a Colts’ team that so far has shown a strong willingness to play fast and push things. That’s in line with Shane Steichen’s history both with the Eagles and then dating back to his time coordinating the Chargers before that. Minshew was in Philly with Steichen, and knows the offense, so there shouldn’t be any reason the Colts will play slower with him under center.
Meanwhile, the Ravens are trying to push the pace and throw more with new coordinator Todd Monken calling the shots. With lead back Justice Hill out for this one, they are down to Gus Edwards and likely practice squad elevation Melvin Gordon as their main RBs, which could mean more of rookie Zay Flowers around the line of scrimmage, getting touches in an “extended handoff” kind of way. The Ravens are down a couple offensive linemen, too, but I still expect them to play reasonably fast.
The two major concerns to this over are the weather and a big spread, where a blowout script could derail things. But it seems like Tropical Storm Ophelia will have passed through Baltimore before kickoff, with winds dying down and just some tapering off rain to contend with. And while I’m not sure the Colts will definitely contend, I’ve been impressed with Steichen through two weeks, and definitely don’t think they are so limited by Minshew — a more accurate but obviously less athletic quarterback than rookie Anthony Richardson — that they won’t be able to score some points, given their tempo.
Both of their games so far have gone over 50 total points. The Ravens have scored in their games, but we’re looking to avoid a scoreline like their 25-9 Week 1 win over Houston. I like that bet on Indy to do more offensively here.