Ben announced our partnership with Underdog about it both in our Discord and in his recent post with his Week 2 plays, but I wanted to give some thoughts from my perspective as well.
Only thing to add is the lines change quite a bit during the week. I personally am not ready for deep thinking about the games until Friday but may be missing value. Do you have a preference to hit the bets early or is your process such that you’ll release Underdog picks late in the week? I did use you Zack Wilson under prop on Underdog so should correlate of you’re already researching props.
Process will be late in the week in terms of getting the correlated stuff out there. Underdog usually doesn't add a bunch of props for players until the weekend so it makes it hard to do game stacks.
In terms of just pure props there is value in placing them early in the week before the lines get efficient as you can sometimes get some good CLV. Issue is it's hard to correlate some of those.
Love the correlation strategy between RBs on the same team.
You might want to track the success rate separately of 2/3/5 legged underdog bets. I think we all hit 4 out of 5 often and the entertainment becomes talking about how we just missed. I think I need to stop trying to get so many things right and focus on 2-3 underdog props per bet.
The other thing is do you have a strategy in percentage of total bankroll dedicated vs how many props per bet? Maybe 60% should be on 2 team props, 30% on 3 teamers, 10% on the yolo 5 teamers...that type of thing.
Very interesting that you mentioned this, I just went back and looked at all my pick ems and categorized them by this.
Had a 41% ROI on the 2-4 leggers and -12% ROI on the five leggers.
I do think sample size is certianly a concern here as I haven't done nearly enough to really get a good idea. Plus the fact that something as simple as Tannehill having one less completion last week is the difference between me having a -12% ROI and a 9% ROI.
I firmly believe if properly correlated that 5 leggers still are a very good play, but there's going to be so much variance with those week to week that it really comes down to getting enough volume on those plays.
I love your idea though of implementing more 3 leggers into my post. In terms of bankroll I'd be placing most of mine on three leggers and five leggers. It's very easy to have a correlated game script like QB/opposing QB higher/lower attempts with the third play being a RB higher/lower attempts correlated with the QB.
Only thing to add is the lines change quite a bit during the week. I personally am not ready for deep thinking about the games until Friday but may be missing value. Do you have a preference to hit the bets early or is your process such that you’ll release Underdog picks late in the week? I did use you Zack Wilson under prop on Underdog so should correlate of you’re already researching props.
Process will be late in the week in terms of getting the correlated stuff out there. Underdog usually doesn't add a bunch of props for players until the weekend so it makes it hard to do game stacks.
In terms of just pure props there is value in placing them early in the week before the lines get efficient as you can sometimes get some good CLV. Issue is it's hard to correlate some of those.
Good stuff. Thanks!
Love the correlation strategy between RBs on the same team.
You might want to track the success rate separately of 2/3/5 legged underdog bets. I think we all hit 4 out of 5 often and the entertainment becomes talking about how we just missed. I think I need to stop trying to get so many things right and focus on 2-3 underdog props per bet.
The other thing is do you have a strategy in percentage of total bankroll dedicated vs how many props per bet? Maybe 60% should be on 2 team props, 30% on 3 teamers, 10% on the yolo 5 teamers...that type of thing.
Very interesting that you mentioned this, I just went back and looked at all my pick ems and categorized them by this.
Had a 41% ROI on the 2-4 leggers and -12% ROI on the five leggers.
I do think sample size is certianly a concern here as I haven't done nearly enough to really get a good idea. Plus the fact that something as simple as Tannehill having one less completion last week is the difference between me having a -12% ROI and a 9% ROI.
I firmly believe if properly correlated that 5 leggers still are a very good play, but there's going to be so much variance with those week to week that it really comes down to getting enough volume on those plays.
I love your idea though of implementing more 3 leggers into my post. In terms of bankroll I'd be placing most of mine on three leggers and five leggers. It's very easy to have a correlated game script like QB/opposing QB higher/lower attempts with the third play being a RB higher/lower attempts correlated with the QB.