Best Bets for Week 4
Plus a review of Week 3
After my long winded story about card counting journey and battling through the downswings of losing money betting, we have had a couple weeks to get back on track here.
I’m going to be honest there was a lot of thoughts running through my head after a brutal week 1. Am I going to be profitable this year? How can I possibly be charging people money for picks when I’m losing people money? Is it worth going through all this time, energy and research constantly just to lose?
I had a four and a half drive back from Vegas by myself that week and it’s honestly all I could think about. I was trying not to make myself go crazy but also be as realistic as possible with the current situation.
A lot of this is a mental game and I’ve honestly learned so many life lessons from my betting and gambling experiences about resilience and continuing to move forward regardless of what has happened in the past.
One of my favorite things that resonated with me a lot was when Ben mentioned about how his brother plays golf and how he is able to essentially draw a line in the sand and start a “new round” mentally even after a couple of bad holes.
The more we start chasing our losses and don’t stick to our guns and process, the more trouble we are going to get in to. Just like golf you’re not going to make up a couple bad scores all in one hole. It’s the consistent shots you put together each hole that is going to get you back on track.
I’m very happy with how the results have played out since Week 1. Starting down 16.21 units is not fun! But I’m happy to say that since Week 1 I’ve been up 12.76 units (including the Thursday night game this week). Overall I’m still down -3.45 units on the year, but that seems so much more manageable.
I also wanna give a major shoutout to everyone reading and supporting that stuck with me through that tough week. I know it seems like I’m very happy about where we are now (I’m not) as technically I’m not even profitable on the year yet. But I also didn’t expect to be this close to being in the black already. We’ve still got a long way to go but it is very encouraging so far.
In this space it’s very easy to see the results of someone in a short sample and be very judgmental about their ability to give out winning plays. It’s really fucking awesome to have a good community of people here who will ride with us even through the bad weeks and trust in our process.
I’m just rambling a bit, but overall I’m just super thankful for each and everyone person here still riding and supporting us. It really means the world and hopefully we can continue to provide value to you for the rest of the season.
Underdog Pick ‘Em Review
Wasn’t a good week as there was a ton of exposure to the under on Burrow and Bengals passing unders here so naturally those did bad.
I tried implementing a couple new strategies that I will share in future posts if they deem to be successful through this little trial period I’m doing.
Gonna keep everyone updated through the weeks, but overall we’re roughly even through these two weeks.
Underdog Pick ‘Em of the Week
You can tail right here
It’s basically going to be a theme every week where we are targeting the teams playing the Titans as our play of the week.
They’re a massive pass funnel defense with one of the best rush defenses dating back to 2022. Game scripts every week look very similar regardless of the opponents as they eventually fade away from the run due to it being very inefficient.