Week 11 Review
Again, it was a pretty tame week of bets. I’ve noticed in the middle of the season I just personally find it harder to find more plays I’m enthusiastic about.
The sportsbooks at this point are very aware of how players are performing and how each matchup should adjust their lines.
Defenses also aren’t as stable as some good defenses have started to falter and some poor defenses have emerged as quality ones.
So in the mess of this its beautiful when we have teams stay consistent throughout the part of the year like RBs vs the Chiefs continuing to struggle and teams vs the Ravens just consistently passing through the air.
With that being said we went 4-2 on the week in bets up 1.8 units and now to a grand total of 30.91 units positive on the season.
I feel like in Week 11 we had some solid reads like Will Levis rushing yards as he cashed his over in the first 6 minutes of the game.
None of the bets were super sweaty last week.
Team Futures Update
We placed two futures unders on the year and those bets are absolutely toast 11 weeks in.
I couldn’t have possibly chosen two worse teams to fade this season.
We bet under 7.5 wins on the Vikings this year.
The main thesis was that rookie QBs tend to struggle, but JJ McCarthy proceeded to get hurt and now Sam Darnold has played well above expectation.
My biggest blind spot was clearly the defense as Brian Flores has turned this defense into one of the best in the league.
Oops.
And then another beautiful one was the Commanders under 6.5 wins.
The thesis being that this defense on paper was one of the worst in the league and Jayden Daniels didn’t have much support around him.
While the defense isn’t elite by any measures it’s certainly better than I anticipated. Not only that Jayden Daniels is turning in arguably the best rookie season of all time.
At least I can partially save face considering the research I did with the final conclusion being: If you like a rookie QBs teams over, you might as well just bet that rookie to win ROY.
Now onto our best and biggest stance of the year: the Arizona Cardinals.
I made a case for them being the surprise team for this season and so far it’s looking awesome.
In fact, for as bullish as I was, I don’t think I was bullish enough.
I truly didn’t think that the Cardinals had it in them to potentially steal the NFC West and I’m honestly kicking myself for not having any bets on them doing so.
The 49ers have had a rough year with injuries as have the Rams, while the Cardinals have struck gold on some talent in the secondary to help alleviate this defense despite them having some key injuries to one of the already worst defenses in the league on paper heading into the year.
I think this is a good lesson that if I have a big stance and belief on a team being better than advertised to just go all out on that take.
The NFL season is crazy and unpredictable and if I truly felt the Cardinals were going to be much better this year why didn’t I also bet them to win the NFC west in my portfolio of Cardinals bets.
Next year whatever team it is that we go big you better believe our portfolio is going to include some crazy upside scenarios as well.
But overall I’ve very happy that this take is looking well, and as an Arizona Cardinals fan it’s been awesome to watch.
Ben’s Future Updates
I just wanted to give a quick shoutout to Ben for being absolutely nails in his season long futures.
I don’t want to jinx anything right now but he’s on pace for some really solid hits.
His main futures:
Chiefs over 11.5 wins
Broncos over 6.5 wins + alts
Cowboys under 9.5 wins + alts
Seahawks over 7.5 wins + alts
Not only are all of these looking like smashes, but the alts he took too are on pace to hit.
Again, long season still left to play and I’m sure we are all very well aware anything can happen as we saw our bets with Jaguars last year absolutely crumble (they were 8-3 at this point in the season), but figured it was worth recognizing since Ben has been crushing it.
NBA Update
Mike has been on an absolute tear so far this season starting 16-6 on his NBA player prop bets.
For someone who doesn’t follow basketball closely it’s awesome to be able to trust that Mike does incredible research and is very aware of the markets to place bets.
It’s been fun to sweat basketball bets this year and consistently winning them too (which makes it more fun).
Again, these NBA bets are exclusive to our Discord which all paid subscribers will have access to.
If you’re a sub and are not in our Discord, click the link to join in your “Welcome to Stealing Lines” email.
Best Bets for Week 12
D'Andre Swift Under 14.5 Rushing Attempts +100 (BetMGM)
Reasoning:
Current Situation:
Active with groin injury
Last week: 58.3% of RB carries (season low)
Historical Injury Impact Pattern:
2022: Averaged 6.5 attempts after Week 6 return
2021: Combined 11 carries in two games post-injury
2020: Averaged 11 attempts post-injury (7 in first game back)
Pattern consistent across multiple head coaches
Vikings' Defense Context:
Only three RBs exceeded this attempt number all season
Historical Pattern Analysis:
Consistent workload reduction when playing injured
Multiple coaching staffs have managed him similarly when hurt
Track record of limited attempts in first games back
Notes:
Given the matchup, along with Swift dealing with a soft tissue injury that he historically hasn’t managed well, this is an incredible matchup to fade him.
Recommendation:
Risk: 1 units to win 1 unit
Play to: 13.5 at -125