The one NFL team that could surprise the league this season
Each year since Stealing Lines was created as a betting outlet, I've identified one or two teams that I believed were making a leap or were essentially undervalued compared to the market.
We've had some pretty solid success recently.
In 2022, I was all over the Eagles when we hit bets on them to be the number 1 seed in the NFC, among other related Eagles bets that year.
In 2023, there were three teams I was most confident in:
The Lions (tied for best record in the NFC)
The Ravens (best record in the AFC)
The Jaguars (started 8-3 before collapsing and finishing 9-8)
This year is a little bit different.
I've mainly tried targeting teams that were borderline playoff contenders that I thought had a chance to be elite teams the following year and potentially contend for a Super Bowl.
This year, my favorite undervalued team fits a different mold: a team that is widely expected to miss the playoffs but that I think has a real shot at making it. I don't think this team is going to make a deep run, as there are real talent concerns across the entire roster that simply won't be able to match up to some of the better teams. But this team is being severely undervalued as one of the worst teams in the league last season.
Some of you may know that I am an Arizona Cardinals fan and follow this team very closely. If you didn't know, you do now.
One thing that's very important to me is not allowing my fandom to affect my analysis or give me rose-colored glasses.
I do think being a fan of a team can be a good thing in betting in the sense that sometimes you pay a little extra attention to your team and all the storylines and things going on with the team that are sometimes really hard to have the same viewpoint of for all 32 teams.
This perspective and fandom were actually big reasons why the Cardinals in 2023 were one of my biggest fades and why they were my favorite win total under last year.
Even though they smashed their under last year, they were actually better than I thought they would be given the overall talent of the roster.
And now, heading into 2024, I truly think they are a team to watch out for that could sneakily surprise this season.
Making the case for the 2024 Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray and the passing offense
Kyler Murray is fully back and healthy this season after coming back off a torn ACL in 2022. We know that the 2nd year off a players ACL they fully return back to form.
The reviews out of Cardinals facility all off season have been beyond glowing about Kyler Murray.
Jonathan Gannon said “I think his game is going to go to another level. In fact, I know it is.”
Trey McBride even said: “This is the most confident I’ve seen him…. I have full confidence he’s capable of an MVP season.”
2023 Cardinals with and without Kyler
Pre Kyler: 29th in EPA/play
With Kyler: 9th in EPA/play
2nd in Rush EPA/play
2nd in Explosive Rush %
29th in PROE
Rushing offense was elite when Kyler came back despite teams knowing they were running the ball a majority of the time. This was also with Kyler running a full attempt less last year than his career average.
This would be expected to go back up due to him being back to 100% now.
Offensive Line
A lot of the same OL is coming back, with Paris Johnson heading into 2nd season. As a top OL prospect last year he is moving to his natural position as the left tackle this season. He should help anchor this offensive line.
And Jon Gaines, a rookie guard last year who was injured for the whole season is coming back.
Despite being a fourth round pick he hits a threshold that has seen massive success at offensive line according to Josh Norris of Underdog.
Jon Gaines had a 4.45 and despite him being a backup right now there have been positive reviews out of camp and he could easily turn into a formidable starter.
The Cardinals signed Jonah Williams to add to their right side this offseason with Paris Johnson making the switch to LT.
They also drafted run mauling guard Isaiah Adams in the early third round this year that should also provide depth on this line.
Despite ranking 26th in run blocking last season, the Cardinals finished first in overall run offense according to PFF.
Is this an area where we should see massive improvement on the offensive line this year? Probably not, but there is depth and last year we saw this offense thrive despite not having one of the best offensive lines in the league.
Offensive weapons
After drafting Marvin Harrison Jr - arguably the best WR prospect in the last decade - 4th overall this brings an immediate WR who should anchor this passing game.
Marvin Harrison profiles as a WR who has the ability to break the all-time rookie receiving numbers and gives Kyler Murray a receiving option on par with what he had with Deandre Hopkins a couple seasons ago.
And having Trey McBride, a young tight end who profiles as an elite receiving weapon at the position gives the Cardinals the best 1-2 punch they’ve had in the Kyler Murray era.
Just how good can Trey McBride be?
It might be too early to say he’s the next Travis Kelce, but the career trajectory at this point is absurd. I feel safe to say he might be a better version of what Zach Ertz was in his career.
The ancillary weapons like Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch round out a wide receiver core that really compliments each other very well.
Michael Wilson is a WR who profiles as a very solid WR2 and has received glowing reviews this offseason.
He was extremely efficient last year with 9.7 yards per targets and had a full season pace as a rookie of 740 receiving yards.
His full season pace (and per game pace) would have put him with nearly identical stats as George Pickens as a rookie.
And his role within the offense is similar. Wilson isn’t going to command a plethora of targets, but when targeted he will be efficient and help keep defenses honest.
There’s a lot of upside within his profile and he is the perfect player to compliment both Marvin Harrison and Trey McBride in this offense that will be able to take advantage of tons of matchups when the opportunity presents itself.
And our lord Greg Dortch is an interesting WR coming out of the slot.
He was an extremely productive college player who has been fighting for playing time since entering the league.
While he doesn’t have any underlying metrics that would label him as a star, there’s been glowing reviews out of camp from nearly everyone including Jonathan Gannon and Kyler Murray.
He looks firmly entrenched as the starter in 11 personnel and will be a big part of their offense this season.
Basically there are four individual and real factors at play with this offense that are all reasons to get excited about:
Kyler fully healthy
Trey McBride true breakout season
Marvin Harrison being a true WR1
Michael Wilson with a 2nd year breakout
And it feels like a true possibility that all of these things happen. And if they do this passing offense has a chance to be one of the best in the league.
Rushing offense
The running offense is also something to be excited about. Even though James Conner is entering his age 29 season, he was first amongst RBs in the entire NFL last year in yards after contact per attempt. He had a career year and has shown no signs of slowing down. He was a main reason the Cardinals were so dominant on the ground last year.
We know RB is a fragile position and injuries are frequent here and the Cardinals seem to understand that by drafting one of the top RBs in this rookie class in Trey Benson.
Benson offers a three down skillset and workhorse size that embodies a profile of what a starting NFL running back looks like.
Benson is so intriguing that he might work his way onto the field with Conner, but at minimum he gives the Cardinals one of the best young exciting backup running backs in the entire NFL.
And add that onto what was already a top two rushing unit with Kyler last year and this has the makings of an elite offense in the league that could score with anyone with zero weaknesses at the skill positions.
Defense
In 2023, the Cardinals' defense was terrible, to say the least.
Here's how they ranked among all NFL teams in these categories:
Pass EPA/play: 31st
Total EPA/play: 31st
Pressure rate: 32nd
Rush EPA/play: 27th
Overall, the unit had very little talent and could not stop opposing offenses.
The Cardinals have brought in many new faces to help increase the overall talent level of this defense.
On the defensive line, they added players like Bilal Nichols, Justin Jones, and their first-round pick Darius Robinson to help bolster their weak rush defense and add more pressure.
While the defensive line has improved, it might still be a weak spot since the biggest addition is a rookie.
Pass rush
Mack Wilson was brought in as a linebacker addition. Despite being injured for the past three years, he showed competence, finishing as PFF's 16th-rated linebacker last year in limited time. He adds versatility and decent pressure rates for his position.
With BJ Ojulari now out for the year, the Cardinals will be moving Mack Wilson to the edge on passing downs to help supplement the pass rush.
Rookie fifth-rounder Xavier Thomas has shown promise during the preseason and could see snaps on the edge in pass-rush scenarios.
The Cardinals are exploring all options for this position.
Secondary
They also signed Sean Murphy-Bunting, a veteran CB who can start for them this year. While he hasn't been the best CB, as teams were efficient when targeting him last year, he did a good job of not getting targeted frequently.
By spending their 43rd, 90th, and 104th overall picks on secondary players, the Cardinals have added more talent to what was likely the league's worst secondary on paper before the draft.
The biggest issue now isn't necessarily talent, but experience, which might limit this unit's success this year.
We should expect this secondary to be almost as bad as last year, but there's potential for improvement if one of these rookies over-performs.
While we shouldn't bank on this happening, it's not impossible for the Cardinals to end up with an average secondary this season.
Overall, the Cardinals' defense on paper is one of the bottom 10 in the league, but there are many unknown variables and potential upsides. If things go right, this defense could perform much better than expected.
Coaching
Jonathan Gannon was a sneakily good coach last year. Despite the Cardinals arguably having one of the least talented rosters in the league, they were a competitive football team against some tough competition.
One of the biggest ways a coach can strategically help or hurt a team during a game is through their in-game decision-making, particularly in terms of aggressiveness on fourth downs, among other smaller decisions that can impact the margins in an already close game.
Last year, according to Aaron Schatz of FTN, Gannon was the most aggressive coach on fourth downs.
This is an extremely encouraging sign given all the data we have learned about gaining edges through going for it more often on fourth downs, as shown in EPA-related research.
This shows that not only does being aggressive on fourth downs leads to better offensive efficiency, but that a coach's aggressiveness on fourth downs is also fairly stable year-to-year.
We should expect Gannon to be aggressive again this year.
While they finished 4-13, the Cardinals surprised many teams with just how competitive they were. All four of their wins last year were against playoff teams, and they had a few close losses that easily could have been wins.
When Kyler returned, they went 3-5 with close losses to both the Texans and Seahawks. The Cardinals should have won the game against the Seahawks if Matt Prater hadn't missed two field goals in the final few minutes of the game.
This was also despite Kyler playing six playoff teams in the eight games he played.
Drew Petzing
Drew Petzing coaching history:
2023 Arizona Cardinals Offensive Coordinator
2022 Cleveland Browns Quarterbacks Coach
2020-2021 Cleveland Browns Tight Ends Coach
2019 Minnesota Vikings Wide Receivers Coach
2018 Minnesota Vikings Assistant Quarterbacks Coach
2015-2017 Minnesota Vikings Assistant Wide Receivers Coach
2014 Minnesota Vikings Coaching Assistant
2013 Cleveland Browns Football Operations Intern
Petzing's entire background comes from a pass-oriented aspect of the offense, so it would seem a bit surprising that the Cardinals were so run-heavy last season.
But in reality, Petzing did an incredible job of fitting this offense around the Cardinals' strengths. Knowing that the passing weapons heading into last year were arguably the worst in the league, he relied heavily on the run.
Obviously, Trey McBride emerged and became a key part of the passing offense, but outside of him, Hollywood Brown had very inconsistent production. Even while Michael Wilson showed promise last season, he was still a rookie and missed time towards the end of the season.
Meanwhile, James Conner was having a career season, and the offense was having success riding him in games.
On top of the fact that the Cardinals were likely easing Kyler Murray into games, this is likely why the Cardinals were so run-heavy last season.
Heading into 2024, I still expect the Cardinals to have the running game be a big part of the offense, but I expect a much more balanced approach that changes week-to-week based on opponents.
There is plenty of upside for this offense to be more pass-driven given the main addition of Marvin Harrison this season.
It should be noted that Nick Rallis, the defensive coordinator, has drawn rave reviews so far.
Those around the league believe Nick Rallis is a future NFL head coach, according to sources. At 30 years old, he has impressed in his young career so far.
Overall, the coaching staff is young but very strong and could coach this team up above its current talent level, especially on defense.
Why they could surprise
When doing our analysis, we can use the sample from last season when Kyler did play, when two things are true:
The Cardinals on defense were 32nd in Pass EPA/play and 27th in Rush EPA/play, while being 32nd in explosive rush rate allowed.
This Cardinals defense couldn't stop anyone on the ground or through the air. And despite a ridiculously tough eight-game schedule, Kyler was able to muster up a 3-5 record (should've been 4-4) behind a top 3 rushing offense and overall top 10 offense.
Assuming all things are equal this year and we extrapolate that example, it proved that the Cardinals could be competitive against some really good teams despite having a defense that might've let Helen Keller run for 100 yards. AND the Cardinals had an offense with Kyler Murray who had no offseason to gel with his new teammates and had never played in this system before, which makes this even more impressive.
The weapons last year were Trey McBride (legitimately good) and a rookie WR who was banged up a bit in Michael Wilson. Other than that, the passing weapons on paper, and in fact the WR room on paper, was likely a bottom-three unit in the league.
Talent was a real issue, and the Cardinals did fine. Knowing all of this and assuming the defense will be close to as bad as it was last year, we know in the back of our minds there is certainly upside to be somewhat decent.
And with the massive addition of someone like Marvin Harrison to the offense to now add another element to a top 10 offense Kyler Murray was running last year, there is now legitimate reason to see the upside that this offense possesses to be a top-five offense in the league.
It feels the floor is very high for this offense and it should be able to keep the team consistently in games week in and week out.