Wild Card Weekend Props
A 5–0 week, strong momentum, and a selective approach to the playoff slate
Happy Wild Card Weekend! For football fans like us, this is easily the best weekend of the year.
Apologies for getting this out a bit later than usual. When I’m not sending out props, I’m running Apex Fantasy Leagues — and with playoff drafts in full swing, it’s been a busy week.
Last week was an excellent one. We finished 5–0, which was a great breakthrough after hovering around breakeven for a few weeks.
For tracking purposes, we now sit at 51–34, up 10.34 units with a 10.42% ROI. If we remove the first four weeks, the numbers are even stronger: 43–25, up 14.86 units with a 19.1% ROI.
As expected, the playoff slate is more challenging. With fewer games, lines tend to be sharper and opportunities more limited. I’ll continue to be selective and only send plays where I believe there’s real value, even if the volume is lower.
Enough small talk — let’s get into this week’s plays.
Wild Card Weekend Props
1U Dalton Kincaid over 36.5 Receiving Yards (FD -114)
To start, despite being banged up, Kincaid is over this line in 8 of 12 games. He played last week, which I thought was a very positive sign for his health as the Bills could have easily sat him.
The Jaguars allowed the fewest rushing yards this season and are a pass-funnel. Their defense had the second-highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) this season. Guarding tight ends was one of their biggest defensive weaknesses.
Here’s a look at some recent TEs against the Jags since their Week 9 bye:
Week 3: Schultz 3/39
Week 4: Tonges 3/58
Week 5: Kelce 7/61
Week 6: Barner 3/71
Week 7: Parkinson 3/47
Week 9: Bowers 12/127
Week 10: Schultz 7/53
Week 11: Gadsden 2/41
Week 12: McBride 9/79
Week 13: Helm 6/23, Okonkwo 4/29
Week 14: Warren 2/15
Week 15: Ruckert 2/13
Week 16: Engram 2/36
Week 17: Warren 5/43
Ignore Week 18: Titans with Brandon Allen
Out of 14 games, a tight end has gone over this line in 10 games. Engram missed by a yard, Warren went under but otherwise, it was the Titans TEs, and Jeremy Ruckert with Brady Cook at QB. I’m not counting the Titans with Brandon Allen’s 72 passing yards.
Kincaid still leads all tight ends with 2.77 yards per route run but his routes have been limited. At 1.71 YPRR, Khalil Shakir is the only other Bills pass-catcher above 1.27.
Kincaid has had an ongoing knee injury that coach Sean McDermott has discussed managing. There is a possibility they’ve limited his regular season snaps as a result. He doesn’t need to play a ton to top this line – Kincaid went over against the Jets in 10 offensive snaps last week.
In their biggest game of the year, assuming he’s healthy enough, the Bills should raise their best pass-catchers workload.
Best Current Line: Over 38.5 MGM -110