Wild Card Round sides and totals
Plus a recap of some regular season futures
It’s been a couple weeks since you’ve heard from me, so apologies for that. Those of you who have been around for the past few years know I like to take Week 18 off, both because it’s a weird week, and also because so much of my NFL research overlaps with fantasy football and Week 18 becomes a very light week after the conclusion of fantasy in Week 17. It’s just always been an easy bye week given the way to play Week 18 is through a lot of extra research and scouring news (and even then, you get the situations that play out differently than reported, like news Drake Maye would start for New England, but then he only played three snaps before exiting, but then Joe Milton played incredibly well and New England won outright to cost themselves the top pick, a rollercoaster of uncertainty around motivation, probability for success, and ultimately what side was right in that game).
Anyway, we’re back this weekend, and will be throughout the playoffs. I get a ton of action down on playoff contests so didn’t have time to get this written up before things locked yesterday, but threw Ravens -8.5 in Discord and we did start the postseason on a high note last night. That brings us to 70-59-4 overall, and +5.85 units on sides and totals.
We also closed out the regular season a fantastic 7-0 on team win total bets, including several alt lines — five of those were at plus money, and three were +195 or greater, and all hit. My two division winner bets when they were the favorites with the longest odds way back before free agency in March were the Lions and Texans, which also both hit at +150 and +160. Hope you were tailing the futures, which have been a really nice boost to the portfolio (unfortunately, the Falcons 10+ receiving TDs bets fell just short with Drake London finishing with 9 after a strong Week 18; that could have been another +500 hit).
It’s been a super fun year to rebound off a tough 2023, and I appreciate you guys following along. We’ll still be looking to finish strong here, and historically the playoffs have been a nice boost. But also, with fewer games overall, the volume is naturally going to be down a bit.
Let’s get into the slate, and I have a pick for each game today. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.