Why the Super Bowl is an awesome betting week + bets
The Super Bowl is hands down one of the best and funnest events to bet on in all of sports. In terms of sheer viewership for this game I constantly have friends and family who barely follow football at all asking for the best way to bet this game.
What makes the Super Bowl a potential gold mine?
What makes this game unique verses all other football games is the sheer number of props and bets available in this game.
Due to the uniqueness of some of these bets it allows us to potentially find edges on some very niche betting.
Similar to how we have mentioned in the past at how NFL spreads and totals are generally extremely efficient, the same can be said for normal player props especially in a highly concentrated betting environment like the Super Bowl.
So generally most of my favorite bets aren’t about overs and unders for players on passing/rushing/receiving but some more obscure props that I’ll share later.
Due to the sheer number of bets available on each sportsbook for this game, this allows unique arbitrage opportunities.
For those unfamiliar with what arbitraging is, it’s essentially betting both sides of the same bet on different sportsbooks guaranteeing a profit regardless of the result.
Now these opportunities to make really any real money have dwindled a bit this year, but a favorite strategy of mine is using first time customer bonuses like risk free bets to take advantage of this.
Complete hypothetical scenario here but let’s say Caesars Sportsbook has a $1,000 risk free bet for new customers.
Caesars has a line of the Chiefs at +120 to win the Super Bowl and DraftKings has the 49ers to win at -120.
You could bet $1000 on the Chiefs on Caesars at +120 to win $1200 and $1200 on the 49ers on DraftKings at -120 to win $1000.
In both scenarios you break even and don’t make any money.
But here’s where it gets fun.
Let’s say the 49ers win and you break even on this bet on DraftKings. Since you technically “lost” the risk free bet on Caesars they would now reward you $1,000 in bonus bets to make up for your “loss”.
So not only did you break even and guarantee not to lose any money, but now you have $1,000 in bets to now make money!
Step number 1
Find all available sportsbooks in your state and check their new customer bonuses.
Step number 2
Read through the terms and conditions of the bonuses and make sure you make a qualifying bet.
Step number 3
Manually find some unique bets across multiple sportsbooks that have different odds.
You’re going to want to dive deep on some of these, some of the best ones can be tackle props but generally the more unique and crazy the bet is the more likel there’s different pricing across the sportsbooks.
This step can be time consuming and finding these are not necessarily easy as you might have to scroll through 7-10 different sportsbooks to find enough of a difference in pricing to take advantage.
Step number 4
When you have found the the bet you want to take advantage of on multiple sportsbooks make sure you double and triple check that the prices haven’t moved.
When placing the bets make sure you place the second bet as quickly as possible after the first one. My best advice is to have one sportsbook open on your phone and the other on a laptop/computer.
Step number 5
If your risk free bet ends up losing, generally the bonus bets are only available for a short period of time after the bet has settled.
When placing these bonus bets you ideally want to bet some longshots in the +500/+1000 range to maximize the value and potential payouts of the bonus bets.
None of this above is financial advice and you are welcome to risk and bet as much as you want on these offers, but the math shows if you aren’t maximizing the full offers you are losing out on potentially free money!
If you’re a more experienced bettor and are familiar with these concepts and have basically every sportsbook known to mankind, I apologize.
But if you’re a more casual bettor who bets for fun on a few sporting events a year like march madness or the Super Bowl, this could be really helpful to help make some money!
I do need to say again that when doing the above strategy you have to be very careful and precise. Betting the wrong side or doing this incorrectly could result having a lot of risk on a certain side of a bet with no guarantee to break even.
Super Bowl Underdog Pick ‘Em
You can tail here
Quick thoughts on this play is its centered around a Chiefs dominant game. Butker has a 87.5% touchback rate this year vs Moody having a 60% rate this year.
This game script is essentially: Chiefs start with ball and Mahomes throws an early TD, Chiefs control the game in the first half and the 49ers are forced to throw a bit in the 2nd half.
If you don’t have an Underdog account you can sign up and use the code “STEALINGLINES” for a 100% match deposit bonus up to $100.
Best Bets for the Super Bowl
Christian McCaffery over 89.5 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel)
The Chiefs are 27th in Rush D DVOA this season.
CMC has played against seven bottom ten rush defenses and went over in five of these seven games for an average of 102.4 rushing yards per game.
The Chiefs passing defense has been elite as of recent ranking top five in Pass D DVOA, explosive pass rate and pass yards per game allowed.
Against the Lions last week, one of the biggest pass funnels and easily one of the worst pass defenses in the league (and the best rush defense in the league), the 49ers still pounded the ball to CMC and imposed their will running the ball despite being down 17 points at halftime.
As long as gamescript doesn’t get completely out of hand, the matchup indicates CMC is the way the 49ers win this game.
Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Play to 91.5
NO touchback on the opening kickoff +260 (Caesars)
Where to find: Under “Kicking”
Jake Moody only has a 60% touchback rate this year, one of the lowest in the NFL. Butker has a 87.5% touchback rate so ideally we’re rooting for the 49ers to kick off first.
What we know is the NFL uses a commemorative football for the opening kickoff of the Super Bowl that immediately gets taken off the field afterwards and brought to the Hall of Fame. These footballs are a bit heavier and harder to kick than normal footballs. Since the rule change in 2016 to push touchbacks up to the 25 yard line we’ve still seen five of the eight opening kickoffs result in a touchback. We even have a small sample of Harrison Butker opening kickoffs in the Super Bowl as he has two Super Bowls where he was the kicker to start the game.
Last year he hit a touchback but in 2021 the ball was returned.
This was a play we hit at +140 last year and ultimately lost but we’re running it back this year at better odds after two straight super bowls with touchbacks.
Risk 1 unit to win 2.6 units
Play to +200
Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 1.5 targets +105 (Caesars)
Where to find: Under “Receiving” props
Jerick McKinnon has a “very real chance” to come back this week and this is trouble for Clyde as a receiver. He’s a game-time decision but based on his comments this week it looks like he’s trending towards playing.
Pacheco has naturally taken some of the burden as a receiver since McKinnon has been out as has Clyde but when both Pacheco and McKinnon are in Clyde sees a very minimized role in the passing game.
Clyde has averaged 5.1 routes run per game with both players this year. Early on in the season Clyde was used a little more but as Pacheco took bigger control of the backfield, Clyde was minimized to only 1 route run in each of his last two games with both players.
Even with McKinnon out, Clyde has only averaged 8.7 routes run per game in the playoffs.
When McKinnon was in the lineup with Pacheco and Clyde, Edwards-Helaire had more than one target in only one of those nine games.
We could definitely see McKinnon have a decreased role to an injury, but it’s still possible he fits right into that pass catching role due to him being a veteran and having played in this offense for a few years.
Risk 1 units to win 1.05 units
Play to -105
Under 6.5 players to record a reception on the 49ers -130 (SuperBook)
Where to find: Player Props
Assuming no mid game injuries here this feels like a very strong bet.
The ancillary players on the 49ers simply don’t get any playing time.
Players we know are gonna run routes and get a reception:
CMC
Kittle
Aiyuk
Deebo
Both Juszczyk and Jennings run routes on roughly 50% of passing plays and are each likely to earn targets and potential receptions. Outside of that there’s nobody involved in this offense. Backups like Chris Conley, Ray Ray McCloud and Charlie Woerner combined for only four routes run last week against the Lions.
And for the season in games in which Sam Darnold did not get a passing attempt (assuming a scenario where a blowout was happening and backups were in) this hit in nine of 11 games. And in eight of those 11 games there were only six or fewer players targeted. Last week was concentrated as well with those six getting the only targets in the game. It’s actually more likely that only five players catch a ball than there is that seven do.
Both Juszczyk and Jennings aren’t locks to catch passes in this game either and they are consistently hovering in the 1-3 target range per game.
Smash bet here at 6.5
Risk 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Play to -150
1st missed FG to be blocked +2500 (DraftKings)
Where to find: 1st of game > 1st missed FG Also available +1800 on Caesar’s.
Since 2012 there have been 1,975 missed field goals and 159 of them (8.9%) have been blocked.
Just a mispriced line with fair odds should be around +1050. We’re getting a void here if no FG is missed.
Risk .2 units to win 5 units
Play to +1600
Christian McCaffery Super Bowl MVP +450 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Normally I don’t like betting MVP as you can generally do a parlay of a certain stat line combined with the teams ML to give better odds. Unfortunately, when putting together parlays of CMC 2 TDs combined with his over scrimmage yards and 49ers ML a lot of the times it’s similar odds as MVP.
There’s only been two cases of a non QB winning offensive player of the year that has went on to win the SB in the last 25 years, Marshall Faulk and Cooper Kupp. Kupp won Super Bowl MVP with 92 yards and 2 TDs (statistically the worst ever for a WR winning SB MVP).
Marshall Faulk only had 17 rushing yards in their victory and it was given to Warner instead. CMC also finished well ahead of Purdy in the MVP voting with 147 points to his 97 indicating how the NFL views the success of the 49ers between those two players. This potentially could and should matter when it comes to voting for the Super Bowl MVP all things considered.
The reason I brang up Kupp was because his narrative heading in was he had an all time year and was a massive reason the Rams were in the Super Bowl. When he had a good game, it was him and not Stafford who got the award.
If CMC gets a couple TDs and the 49ers win the way the media already perceives Purdy/Cmc could give him the edge here.
Generally a QB award but this year could be different especially given the nature of this matchup and how the 49ers match up better on the ground vs the pass.
Risk .5 unit to win 2.25 units
Play to +400