Why History is Telling Us There Could be a Massive Blowout + Bets
I may have accidentally made a compelling discovery about the playoffs and the impact of close and emotional wins on a team's performance.
The Theory
We're going to dive into a theory about the playoffs and the impact of close and exciting wins on a team's performance the following week.
As a Cardinals fan, I have noticed a pattern where coming off close and exciting wins in the playoffs we would tend to get blown out the following week. The 2009 playoffs were where Karlos Dansby returned a fumble for a touchdown in overtime against the Packers after squandering a 21-point lead, only to lose by 34 points the following week to the Saints.
This theory is supported by other recent examples such as the Cardinals' NFC championship game loss to the Panthers 49-15 after their "Hail Mary" win against the Packers. Similarly, the Vikings were favorites but got smoked by the Eagles 38-7 in the NFC championship game the year they had the "Minneapolis Miracle".
While this theory is based on small sample size, it raises questions about the psychological and physical toll that close and exciting wins can have on a team. The emotional highs of winning in dramatic fashion may lead to a letdown the following week. Additionally, the physical toll of playing in such intense and high-stakes games can take a toll on players' bodies, leading to a less-than-optimal performance the next week.
It was mentioned that those three games came to mind so I crowdsourced and asked friends as well as Twitter followers what would fit similar criteria of “best games” in recent playoff memory.
I wanted to look specifically at Wild Card and Divisional round games because teams get a full week of rest in between the Conference Championships and the Super Bowl which could mess with some of the data.
The definition of a “close, emotional game” is very subjective so we do need to keep that perspective when looking at the data. With that being said, some of these games were mentioned multiple times.
The games in the sample
2002 Wild Card game NYG vs 49ers
The 49ers rallied down 24 points to set up a go-ahead touchdown in the final minute of the game to put them up 39-38 after missing the two-point conversion. A botched snap on a potential game-winning 41 yard field goal as time expired gave the 49ers the win.
The 49ers went on to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the divisional round, but lost 31-6.
2003 Divisional game PHI vs GB
The Eagles won the game 20-17 in overtime. The game was well known for the 4th-and-26 conversion by the Eagles on their game-tying drive in the fourth quarter, which kept their hopes alive and eventually led to their game-winning touchdown in overtime.
The Eagles lost 14-3 the following week despite being four-point favorites.
2009 Wild Card game GB vs AZ
The Cardinals won the game 51-45 in overtime on a fumble return touchdown. This game was known for being a high-scoring affair and for the Cardinals blowing a 21 point lead that forced the game into overtime.
The Cardinals lost 45-14 the following week against the Saints.
2011 Wild Card game DEN vs PIT
The Broncos with a Tim Tebow lead team, shocked the Steelers. The game was tied 23-23 heading into overtime and on the first play of overtime Tebow hit a crossing Demaryius Thomas for an 80 yard touchdown to win the game.
The following week they lost 45-10.
2011 Divisional Game NO vs SF
Alex Smith lead a dramatic game-winning drive to throw a touchdown to Vernon Davis with nine seconds left in the game to give the 49ers a 36-32 victory.
The following week the 49ers were two point favorites and lost 17-20 against the Giants in the NFC Championship game.
2012 Divisional Game DEN vs BAL
Down seven points and 31 seconds left, Joe Flacco hit a streaking Jacoby Jones down the sideline for a dramatic 70-yard touchdown to tie the game and send it into overtime.
Justin Tucker hit a 47-yard FG in overtime to send the Ravens onto the next round.
The Ravens actually won 28-13 the following game as 7.5-point underdogs and went on to win the Super Bowl. They’re the only team in this sample to win their following game.
2013 Wild Card game IND vs KC
The Colts and Andrew Luck overcame a 38-10 deficit to beat the Chiefs 45-44 and secure the second-largest playoff comeback in NFL history.
The Colts lost 43-22 the following week.
2015 Divisional game GB vs AZ
The single best live game I’ve ever, and will ever, go to.
Rodgers completed a 4th and 17 with under a minute left backed up in their own 15-yard line to eventually set up a Hail Mary that was miraculously caught by Jeff Janis as time expired to send it to overtime.
Arizona got the ball first in overtime. On a 3rd and 5, Larry Fitzgerald went 65 yards to set up a 5-yard shovel pass touchdown for the win.
The Cardinals lost 49-15 the following week in the NFC Championship game.
2016 Divisional game GB vs DAL
After Dan Bailey hit a 52-yard field goal with 35 seconds left, it seemed certain this game was headed to overtime. Rodgers lead the Packers down the field 43 yards with a spectacular throw to Jared Cook on the sideline to get them in field goal range. Mason Crosby hit a 51-yard field as time expired to send them onto the following round.
The Packers lost 44-21 against the Falcons the following week.
2017 Divisional game NO vs MIN
In what might go down as the best play in all of NFL history, Stefon Diggs scored a 61-yard touchdown known as the “Minneapolis Miracle” as time expired to win the game 29-24 and advance to the next round.
The Vikings got clobbered 38-7 in the NFC Championship game despite being three-point favorites.
2021 Divisional game BUF vs KC
This might have been the single best game in NFL history and we all remember this very clearly. With 25 points scored in the final two minutes of the game, Mahomes lead a FG drive with only 13 seconds left on the clock to send the game to overtime. Travis Kelce caught a touchdown in overtime to advance them to the AFC Championship game.
The Chiefs got upset by the Bengals 27-24 the following week despite being seven-point favorites.
How did they perform on average the following week?
These were all extremely intense and emotional games for all of these teams. While it’s possible I might have missed a couple of other dramatic games in this timeframe, it feels fair to say these all are similar in their dramatic fashion of a game.
Most of them had one thing in common in their following game: They severely underperformed their expectations.
Outside of the Ravens who won by 15 points, all the other teams lost their next game.
Here’s how the 11 teams fared in total the following week:
1-10 straight up
1-10 against the spread
Average point differential was -18.4
Average of underperforming the spread by 15.1 points
Average of 15.2 points scored
Average of 33.6 points allowed
Just absolutely mind-blowing numbers.
Some more fun stats:
9 of 11 teams underperformed their spread by 10+ points
7 of 11 teams lost by 21+ points
7 of 11 teams scored 15 or fewer points
5 of 11 teams gave up 43+ points
Is there a game that fits these criteria?
Last week the Jaguars capped off the third largest comeback in NFL history coming back down from 27-0 to win 31-30 on a game-winning field goal as time expired.
It was a crazy game that seemed to be completely over in the first half as Lawrence threw four interceptions. He rallied back and ended up winning that game.
It was also the first playoff win/game for Trevor Lawrence and this new generation of the Jaguars, leading to an extremely emotional win.
It feels safe to say that this game fits exactly into the same type of games that I mentioned earlier as part of our sample where the teams have a letdown the following week.
Chiefs vs Jaguars
As of writing this (12:25 AM MT) the Chiefs are 9-point favorites.
Not only are the Chiefs one of the best teams in the league, but there are also some serious mismatches at play here in favor of the Chiefs.
Mahomes and the Chiefs are rightfully 1st in Pass O DVOA this year. On the other hand, the Jaguars are 30th in Pass D DVOA on the season.
Mahomes should be able to do whatever, whenever he wants in the air against the Jaguars.
The Jaguars as a team are one of the worst teams still in the playoffs. The top six teams in overall DVOA this year according to Football Outsiders are still alive in the playoffs, but yet the Jaguars are 13th and still around.
The weather is something that is being talked about as potentially being a factor in this game, but current weather reports have roughly a 60% chance of rain/snow during the game with very minimal winds. The temperature is also fluctuating around 30-35 degrees throughout the game.
This should heavily favor Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Trevor Lawrence has only played in one career game sub 35 degrees - against the Chiefs earlier this year. The Chiefs won 27-17 and ironically covered a nine-point spread.
Mahomes has won nine games in sub-35-degree weather in his career, covering the spread in eight of those nine wins.
Mahomes in the Playoffs
As a starting quarterback, Patrick Mahomes is 8-3 in the playoffs.
His three losses consist of:
An overtime loss to the Patriots in his first year in the playoffs
Loss to the Bucs in the Super Bowl
Loss to the Bengals coming off an emotional win
In his eight wins, he is:
7-1 against the spread
Overperforms the spread by an average of 7.5 points
Scored at least 31 points in all seven of those games they covered the spread
This week against the Jaguars would mark the third-highest spread Mahomes has had in the playoffs. In the other two games in which they were bigger favorites, they scored 51 and 42 points.
While nothing is ever a guarantee, sportsbooks are giving the Chiefs an 82% chance to win. It’s safe to assume just based on this information that it’s likely the Chiefs win.
But knowing how well Mahomes does verses the spread in wins in the playoffs and cold games, how well the matchup favors Mahomes and the Chiefs, and how poorly teams coming off emotional and close wins the previous week, the Chiefs are in such a smash spot not only to cover the spread but to do so in a massive way.
Chiefs/Jaguars Plays
Chiefs -9 -110 (everywhere)
Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Play to -10
Chiefs over 30.5 team total -120 (Caesars)
Risk 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Play to 31.5 (plus or even odds)
Chiefs -20.5 +335 (BetRivers/Barstool)
Risk .5 units to win 1.675 units
Play to +275
Chiefs to score the most points +230 (Fanduel)
Risk .5 units to win 1.15 units
Play to +200
Jaguars to score the least points +470 (Fanduel)
Risk .3 units to win 1.41 units
Play to +450