Week 9 sides and totals
Plus our $100 Underdog winner
This week’s $100 Underdog winner is Discord user name sgiordano45. Congrats! That will be deposited directly into your UD account.
For anyone who hasn’t signed up yet, sign up at this form one time this season and you’ll be entered into our weekly $100 giveaways all year long.
Week 8 was another mixed bag; I went 2-0 on over/unders so a little regression started up there, but just 1-3 on sides and totals for a 3-3 record overall. A couple of the picks on the sides were just way off, while the closest thing I had to backing that I didn’t make official was the Vikings in a pick ‘em at Green Bay, and that looked like a no-brainer halfway through the first half.
With scoring down, margin of victory up, and so many QB changes and shifts in what teams even are (or seem to be) from week to week, it’s certainly been a challenge to stay ahead of things. The outcomes seem a lot more variable.
For example, I sometimes like to think through a matchup before checking the line, and this week’s Thursday Night Football struck me as an under play right off the bat. Will Levis looked good in his debut the week prior, but largely because of deep ball efficiency, which can be high-variance. Kenny Pickett was playing hurt. It was a short week with conservative coaches.
But when I saw the over/under at 37, I had to reconsider. Levis’ aDOT was high and I did expect him to take shots. Tennessee’s defense might push Pittsburgh to the pass more. In the end, Pittsburgh won 20-16, covering the 3-point spread by a point with the game staying under by a point.
But I have a couple picks I really like this week, where some trends I’ve wanted to play into are available.
One of those I won’t be playing is the Germany game, but it’s interesting after our earlier discussions about travel time that the Dolphins went over early in the week and got situated, while the Chiefs flew out Thursday into Friday, and had a light Friday practice over there after landing. I didn’t bet into this because the line seemed to have caught up — I realize Miami is very good, but anytime the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes are only -1.5 feels like a great number for them. And the inverse of taking the Dolphins at +1.5 feels tough.
I also considered the over/under here, but it’s a rare-for-2023 total over 50, and while that screams “under” in this atmosphere, Miami is an explosive-play offense and Mahomes and the Chiefs will turn up the pass rate to an extreme degree if that jet lag forces them to chase at all. It’s hard to envision scenarios where these offenses won’t be maximizing scoring chances, including by adding possessions and elongating the game, so honestly my lean is probably to the over. The market isn’t dumb — this game sits at 50 despite over/unders being down league-wide, which doesn’t mean “Vegas knows” or anything as much as it is an admission they don’t want to be exposed to a huge “over” liability.
So anyway, these lines seem sharp, and travel schedules seem baked in, which isn’t surprising. Given we actually have a small sample on travel schedule disparities, and the results may not be as extreme as some of the limited outcomes we’ve seen, you don’t want to be chasing the vague trend when the value isn’t as obvious.
Let’s get to the Week 9 picks. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Washington Commanders at New England Patriots
Pick: Over 40.5, -110 (BetMGM, Caesars)
You have to be a little concerned about what Bill Belichick might have in store for Sam Howell, given how well he’s historically done against young QBs. But you have to love Washington’s willingness to chuck it, with the NFL’s second-highest PROE this season behind only Kansas City at +8.7%. Add in that they were finally able to keep Howell mostly upright this past week against the Eagles (just one sack taken), and there’s reason for optimism for the Washington passing game going forward.
Part of that optimism lies in what their defense will look like. Already boasting a secondary that can’t cover anybody, the Commanders dealt away their top two edge rushers this week. A decline in pressure rate is not going to be good for the success of the defensive backs, who have been hit particularly hard by outside WRs whose longer-developing routes will have more opportunities to hit.
We’ll have perfect football weather in Foxboro as well, with temperatures in the fifties, very little wind, and forecasts showing very little chance for precipitation.