Week 9 sides and totals
And a look at Week 8
We’ve been running pretty hot lately in avoiding bad beats, so a week like Week 8 was due. I wouldn’t argue the picks were perfect, so that’s a relevant note as well. But we lost the Houston cover when they were inside the 10-yard line, up 3 points with under three minutes remaining, and fumbled a straightforward toss play. That was going to 10 or at the least 6 with a FG, which would have put the Colts in TD-or-bust territory and made -5 look pretty solid either way. They wound up winning by 3.
The Dolphins were the better team hosting Arizona for most of that game, but it was a low-possession game — both teams only had 8 possessions — and with a 30-20 lead late in the third quarter, Miami took a safety on a snap over Tua Tagovailoa, which flipped the game on its head. Miami still scored the next time they had the ball — and on 5 of their others 7 drives — but instead of that pushing things to a 17-point game, the safety and ensuing Arizona TD drive had already cut it to 2 before Miami had it back. After Arizona answered yet again, and Miami had to punt, the Cardinals wound up with an outright win on a last-second field goal.
And then there was the Packers-Jaguars game, where injuries were the story, but losing Jordan Love meant the Packers couldn’t sustain any drives late. They did benefit from a costly Jags turnover deep in Jacksonville territory early in the fourth quarter to push the score to 27-17, but Jacksonville made it 27-20 and then Green Bay couldn’t even get a first down to keep us on a scoreline that would have won both bets. Instead, they punted away for a two-unit drive for the Jaguars that had both the under and the -3.5 in jeopardy. And of course, the Jags tied it up with a TD for Evan Engram among three defenders, pushing the game over its total, and then when the Packers were able to still win the game with a late FG, we were done in by the hook. Had the Packers held defensively there, we’d have won both bets, a 4-unit swing.
It was a 3-5 week overall, and those were four of the losses. The Ravens/Browns over was fairly straightforward, reaching 53 total points despite a slow start. The Broncos easily covered their 10.5 at home against the Bryce Young-led Panthers, leading 28-7 to ensure the backdoor cover wasn’t open even when the Panthers scored a garbage time TD to push the final score to 28-14. And the Chiefs were able to split with the Raiders in a game that frankly could have also been a double loss, like the Packers, until KC pushed it to 27-13 with about five minutes left, which ensured either the cover or the over, and with the Raiders scoring on the way back to backdoor the spread, the over did hit.
The week dropped us to 34-26-4 on the season, for +5.71 units. We’ll look to get back in the win column this week in a big week with a dozen bets. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
Pick: DEN +9.5, -105 (ESPNBet)
By this point, you guys know my Denver takes, but the market continues to disrespect them, so we continue to play them. If there’s one thing Sean Payton loves to do, it’s lose a game by single digits. Obviously I can see the scenarios where the Ravens run a rookie-QB team off their home field, but then I remember the Broncos have a legit great defense, No. 1 in the NFL in EPA/play on the season, per Sam Hoppen.
Denver’s better against the pass than the run, and I expect the Ravens to lean on Derrick Henry this week given Lamar Jackson missed practice time and seems like he’s not quite 100%. I don’t anticipate Diontae Johnson making a huge impact in his first game, days after being acquired. I do think the Ravens win this game, but if they are operating slowly on offense, even some efficiency on the ground will make it difficult to truly blow out the Broncos. Especially considering their secondary has really struggled of late, and the Broncos will likely just drop back to pass a ton in this one.
The big question mark then is Bo Nix, but he’s coming off the best game of his season by quite a lot. I wouldn’t be on this bet at +7, but +9.5 is a massive line given the Broncos are fifth in the NFL in point differential (mostly because they are fourth in points allowed). The market just doesn’t want to buy this is a good football team, even with some warts on offense.