Week 9 sides and totals
Plus a recap of YTD results
Week 8 was a fun one, with a 3-1 finish that had a couple fairly comfortable wins in the early Sunday windows followed by a Sunday Night Football split. The Packers more or less giving up in the third quarter, then backdoor covering the 10.5 with a long touchdown pass in the fourth after the Bills failed to convert at the goal line on the prior drive, was a pretty hilarious result. But if the Bills had actually run away with it, it might not have stayed under the total like it did. The split was ultimately probably the fair result, even if the general flow of the game more or less matched the idea of the bets in trying to hit both sides of a comfortable Bills’ win that wouldn’t be very competitive in the second half, and thus wouldn’t feature a lot of late points.
In my Week 1 writeup for this piece, I broke down the results of my public sides and totals picks over the past two years, and talked through some process-related things. To sum those results, I found:
I have a bias for unders, and perform better picking unders than overs
I have a bias for favorites, but perform better picking underdogs
I tended to perform well after a few weeks of results, through the October and November period, but faded in December and January both seasons
As we’re approaching the halfway point here, I wanted to get a feel for what this year’s data showed, because we’re getting to the point where tracking my splits makes some sense. Up to this point, I haven’t paid much attention, as we need at least a bit of a sample to try to devise any conclusions. Last week brought us to 23-18-1 for +3.73 units overall. Here’s how those bets have split out:
4-5 on overs for -1.34
7-4 on unders for +2.62
5-6-1 on favorites for -1.63
7-3 on underdogs for +4.075
If you read the above and looked back at the data from the Week 1 writeup, you’ll see my results have matched the past couple years in some key ways. I’ve picked more unders and favorites, and I’ve been more successful picking unders and underdogs.
The key difference is there’s a lot more balance in my bets here, which is particularly notable when looking at sides. In the past, I had a significant bias toward favorites, but this year I’ve successfully been more discerning in focusing in on the spots where I feel an underdog is a good bet. On the flip side, my past results might have suggested I should be even more biased toward unders, and I’ve probably been too willing to try overs so far this year.
That’s been a particularly unfortunate outcome in a 2022 scoring landscape where points are down and unders have been performing very well. But lines have also shifted down, and the highest total I’ve taken an over on was 45.5. In fact, five of my nine overs have been on totals listed at 42.5 or lower, and I’ve gone 3-2 on those (with one miss being the Week 1 monsoon between the Bears and 49ers, which I took early and without knowing the expected weather situation), while I’m 1-3 on overs at 43.5 up to 45.5.
As for unders, seven of the 11 I’ve taken have been at lines of 45.5 or higher. Of those unders on higher lines, I’m 6-1. My other four under bets have all been at 43.5 or lower, and those low-total under bets have gone 1-3.
Similarly, of my 12 bets on favorites, only five have been on lines greater than -3, but I’ve gone 1-4 chasing big favorites to cover. Of my seven bets on favorites at -3 or closer, I’ve gone 4-2-1.
That data is a good reminder that when there is uncertainty early in the season, it can be profitable to bet against market confidence. When I’ve taken overs on higher totals, unders on lower totals, and favorites on larger spreads, I’ve tended to perform much worse than when I’ve taken unders on higher totals, overs on lower ones, and when my bets on favorites have come in more ambiguous situations where the lines have been -3 or closer.
As I dig into a few other pieces of data, I’ve had a significant bias toward taking road teams on sides this year, and have actually yet to bet on a home underdog this season. Of the seven road favorites I’ve backed, I’ve gone just 2-4-1 so far. Four of those seven have been at numbers larger than -3, which is a group I already mentioned having had poor results from, and I’ve gone 1-3 backing those large road favorites.
That definitely feels like something to clean up, and it probably derives from just not being discerning enough with home-field advantage. It would probably be a fair criticism of my process to say I tend to think too much in terms of how two teams might line up on a neutral field. If that’s accurate, it would suggest that when I see road favorites, those spreads often feel a little tighter than they should be. And when I see home underdogs, I instinctively don’t think they are getting enough points. It makes sense, and my results pretty clearly defend that hypothesis, not just in terms of success but also — and more definitively — in terms of what bets I’m even taking.
Admitting biases to ourselves is a huge part of continuing to grow as gamblers. And it’s funny that I did this research this week, because I had two early leans on road favorites of larger than 3 points. Now that calls into question more things to consider. My immediate response is to scratch those bets. But there’s another interpretation that I’m cutting everything into small samples, and reviewing results shouldn’t completely dictate what I do going forward. It’s a guide, and important information, but how we apply information like this is no different than how we might apply data related to the teams and matchups themselves.
I have a bias, to be sure, and my results have not been strong in this area thus far. But that doesn’t mean I should completely stop taking big road favorites, just as my lack of home underdog selections doesn’t mean I should start hammering those just to create balance. As always, we’re trying to find good spots, well argued, and with all the known information. As I finish up this intro, I’m not even sure yet whether I’ll make those two big road favorites into official picks. I’m going to dig further, but I’m still open to it. (If I don’t, I will be sure to post them at bottom as “leans.”)
Let’s get to the Week 9 picks. All plus bets are to win one unit and all minus bets are risk to win one unit, unless otherwise stated in the writeup.
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Over 42.5 (-110, widely available)
Here’s a low-total over I’m definitely comfortable with. There’s a lot of concern P.J. Walker might turn into a pumpkin, and I don’t think he’s a star or anything, but this is a guy that can actually play. I’ve probably mentioned in this space before — if not, I’ve certainly mentioned it several times over at Stealing Signals — that Walker was the MVP of the XFL in 2020.
That seems like a hilarious data point, and it probably should evoke immediate laughter, but the reason I like to reference this is he was very good at that level. That doesn’t mean he definitely can play at the NFL level, but if you approach that data point from the position of “What if he’s actually good enough to play at the NFL level?” the way he carved up the XFL would be a good piece of evidence. We would expect an NFL-caliber QB to dominate a league like the XFL, and that’s exactly what Walker did.
And then, while his overall numbers at the NFL level aren’t fantastic, he’s been much stronger in games he’s actually started (five) versus the eight times since 2020 he’s thrown a pass in a game he didn’t start. In his eight appearances as a relief quarterback, Walker has completed just 41.5% of his passes (27 for 65) for 5.6 yards per attempt with one touchdown and five interceptions. Overwhelmingly, those were situations where the team was already behind by multiple scores and he needed to be aggressive, with it also being a situation where he didn’t take many (or any) first-team reps through the week of practice. It’s not really a fair barometer of his true ability level, and it’s been a pretty sizeable piece of his overall sample thanks to how bad the Panthers have been generally and the need for him to enter so many times.
In his five starts, though, he’s completed 66.4% of his passes (91 of 137) for 7.1 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and four interceptions. His team is also 3-2 in those games, with his only two losses coming last week against the Falcons (thanks in part to two missed kicks, a 48-yard extra point and a 32-yard overtime field goal try) and then a few weeks ago in his first 2022 start against the Rams. That game in Los Angeles was Steve Wilks’ first as interim head coach, and the Panthers featured a heavy run lean and no vertical passing — Walker’s biggest strength at the XFL level and on display this past week on his absolute dime to D.J. Moore late that traveled further in the air than any completion by any QB in the Next Gen Stats era. The Panthers totaled a comically low 19 air yards as a team in that loss to the Rams.
If you buy Walker as having something like league-average QB upside, this is a fairly easy over to like. D’Onta Foreman has looked very good running the ball, and the Bengals are down both of their top two cornerbacks, Chidobe Awuzie and Mike Hilton. If Walker can play decent, there’s not a ton of reason this offense can’t continue to be productive.
On the Bengals’ side, there’s reason for optimism back at home. They got trounced last week by the Browns’ pass rush, and obviously missed Ja’Marr Chase. Joe Burrow took five sacks and settled for a ton of underneath throws, hitting RBs for 11 of his 25 completions. Their blocking has been very poor at times, but the Panthers don’t generate much pressure — Football Outsiders has them 30th in adjusted sack rate, for one metric. Missing out on Ja’Marr Chase is an issue, but Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd still make for a plus WR duo.
The way this over misses is if both teams are a little too run heavy, particularly the Bengals who are favored and we need to score points. That’s why we need the Panthers to be competitive enough on offense to push the Bengals a little bit. There’s not much reason to doubt that the Bengals can be better than they were passing the ball last week, even without Chase, against this Panthers defense. We just need them to want to throw, which should happen if the Panthers can score some points on their end. In P.J. Walker we trust.