Week 9 Prop Bets
What a massive turn of events we have had since this last post. Variance swung right back in our favor as seemingly everything hit that we played.
I finished the week up 12.5 units and that didn’t include unofficial plays like Derrick Henry to lead the league in rushing 11/1 and Kyle Pitts ladders which were both mentioned in our Discord chat.
Also we hit on a season long futures bet of AJ Brown to have two 125 yard receiving games this year at +190.
We then started this week up 3.5 units on Thursday night after fading Davis Mills quite a bit ended up being fruitful.
It’s already been a wildly successful start to Stealing Lines so far as I’m up 29.42 units on weekly props this year. A lot of the futures we have placed also look to be in decent shape.
Some fun ones that seem to be live right now are:
Eagles to be the number 1 seed in the NFC +1400
Kenneth Walker to win Rookie of the Year: +3000
Derrick Henry most rushing yards +1600
Geno Smith to win comeback player of the year +2500
Saquon Barkley most scrimmage yards +3000
There’s obviously plenty that have missed and some of these won’t hit, but it does feel good to see the process and these bets have a chance.
Also a ton of the unders we have played look very likely to cash.
Here are some players we (or I) faded officially in Stealing Lines:
Mac Jones
Najee Harris
Cam Akers
D’Andre Swift
Antonio Gibson
Deebo Samuel (rushing)
Alec Pierce
Skyy Moore
Ezekiel Elliot
Kyler Murray (rush TDs)
Russell Gage
Dawson Knox
Outside of Alec Pierce, all of them are at least 60%+ likelihood of hitting the unders.
The same can’t be said for some of the overs we’ve placed. Here are the players we took overs on:
Kyle Pitts
Elijah Moore
Jalen Hurts (passing)
Trey Lance
This doesn’t include some players we did alternate lines on like:
Rashod Bateman
Courtland Sutton
AJ Brown
Tee Higgins
Julio Jones
Gabe Davis
Now missing on these alternate lines because we really only need to hit one or two to become profitable. It looks like our outs right now are Higgins and AJ Brown if they can stay healthy and maintain elite levels of production.
Overall though the portfolio of bets we have placed have me very excited about how this season will finish for us.
If you’ve been following along with the Weekly Specials you might have noticed that I haven’t posted as many recently. Last week was an exception in the Discord when Fanduel made a massive mistake with their lines.
It seems these sites are doing everything in their power to “limit” mistakes and overcorrect by having juiced lines.
Here is what DraftKings opened with this week. Just brutal.
FanDuel at points last year was releasing their Weekly Specials on Wednesday.
This year they started releasing them on Thursday before gradually having Friday releases. Now this week they released them on Saturday with completely juiced lines.
Not good for business right now. We will have to be patient and take a week to week approach with these lines.
We only played two officially this week: PJ Walker +9000 most passing yards on Sunday and “The Field” to have the most rushing yards on Sunday/Monday +2500.
Both those lines are gone.
This week I haven’t played a ton of bets, but have just picked some spots where I think matchups or situations have given us a clear edge.
Let’s run good this week.
Week 9 Bets
Raheem Mostert -7.5 rushing yards vs David Montgomery -115 (DraftKings)
We individually bet Mostert overs and Montgomery unders along with this bet in the Discord before the lines moved. This is my favorite way to play this.
Where to find: H2H Player Props > Rush Yds H2H
Bears opponents have 2nd lowest PROE, Dolphins opponents have 3rd highest PROE.
Bears are bottom 5 rush D, Dolphins are top 10 rush D.
Mostert doesn’t have much competition (Wilson likely won’t play much in first week), Monty splitting snaps with Herbert.
These actual lines are 17 yards apart.
Risk 1.675 units to win 1.5 unit
Play to -10.5