Week 9 Player Props
A 3–1 week, key lessons on variance, and the value of getting the best number
Hey Guys,
Another good week in the books — we went 3-1! Our only loss was Tua Tagovailoa’s under on passing yards (202–205.5), which likely graded as a win for many depending on the line you grabbed. MGM and Bet365 had the better number, while the 202.5 line missed by just three yards.
If you were watching that game, you know how brutal it was. There was no reason for the Dolphins to even have Tua in the game with how thoroughly they dismantled the Falcons. It was a good play that simply broke the wrong way.
Line value was also crucial on the Keaton Mitchell over from Thursday night. I took over 10.5 on MGM, but unfortunately, any higher lines didn’t get there.
Like the Tua bet, coaching variance played a frustrating role. Up 28–6 with six minutes left in the fourth quarter, John Harbaugh decided to give his 32-year-old workhorse five straight carries instead of putting the veteran on ice — just a week after saying they needed to get Keaton Mitchell more involved. Ridiculous stuff, but if you bet long enough, you learn to live with it.
It’s a good reminder: have access to as many books as possible and use line shopping to your advantage. It’s one of the most important tools if your goal is long-term profitability.
Regardless, after starting 8–11 through Weeks 1–4, we’ve gone 12–5 over the last four weeks. I’ve included the write-up (and Harbaugh quote) for the first bet of the week below — feel free to scroll past if you just want the picks.
Let’s keep the streak rolling into Week 9.
Week 9 Player Props
1U Keaton Mitchell over 10.5 Rushing Yards (MGM -110), over 12.5 on FD is also good
I’m a little biased because I think Keaton Mitchell is Chris Johnson-lite. He’s insanely fast and one of the most efficient runners in the NFL with the ball in his hands. As a rookie, he averaged 8.4 yards per carry (probably some sort of record) on 47 carries. He struggled in his return as a sophomore from his ACL tear but is now up to 51 yards on 7 carries this season (7.3 YPC) without Lamar Jackson.
HC John Harbaugh said the following in his post-game presser:
“One of the many things we looked at during the bye week was tagging plays for Keaton Mitchell. We just said, we gotta do it. You want to make sure that Derrick Henry gets his reps, and Justice Hill is effective, but we just said that we have got to tag plays for Keaton Mitchell and make sure we get him the ball.”
In his three games since being activated, Mitchell has 3 carries, 0 carries, and 4 carries last week. He ran for 43 yards on 4 attempts last week. If there’s ever a time to use him, it’s on a short week against the Dolphins. Henry is almost 32 years old – it’s time to save a few rush attempts and get the 23-year-old Mitchell the ball. The Ravens are currently 7.5-point favorites – there is potential for a lot of clock-killing carries.
Even after stonewalling Atlanta, Miami is allowing the 3rd most rushing yards per game. The Dolphins have allowed the secondary running back to go over this line in their first six games (see attached).
Another collab with Connor Allen from 4for4.
