Week 8 sides and totals
Plus recapping another profitable week in Week 7
Always feels good to be hitting. As I’ve written about in past years, since I started doing this, I tend to have an edge starting around Week 3 or Week 4, when the sample is decent enough for someone like me who watches every game to act, but the data isn’t robust enough for the models to figure some of the realities of the season out yet.
We started 6-7-1 across Weeks 1 and 2, just getting our feet wet, but have gone 25-14-3 in the five weeks since. That included a 5-2 mark last week.
It’s always important to recognize when you’re just running a little hot. The day started out well with the over in the London game, but while that started off high-scoring, it was at real risk until a late Patriots’ turnover on downs led to a very short field for the Jaguars and a statement TD.
The Dolphins moneyline missed, and I both think that could have hit but also the thesis of the bet was only half right (I both thought the Dolphins could look better out of the bye even with Tyler Huntley at QB and that the Colts aren’t very good, and one of those things was true). With the Dolphins trying to run out the clock from the opening whistle, their fumble in their own territory and then a long missed field goal were costly mistakes to overcome, which led to 10 of the Colts’ 16 points. In defense of anyone on the other side, it’s not like Miami was scoring at will or anything, so tough to argue that was the right side.
The Detroit moneyline plus over bet on the Lions being able to score on the Vikings’ vaunted defense hit. That was a fun double tap from the same game that was relatively clean, though David Montgomery’s fumble returned for a touchdown did put the moneyline side in doubt for a bit there. The Eagles -3 was also a very clean win in Saquon's return to New York.
And then we split Washington -8.5 and the over when Jayden Daniels went out. The Commanders still did their part, putting up 40, but the Panthers were a complete mess, only totaling 180 yards of offense against a beatable Commanders defense to keep that game under the 51.5 total.
Of late, the typically suboptimal picks like overs and away favorites have been rolling. We’re 13-9-2 on favorites this year, including 6-4-1 on road favorites. But we’re also 4-0-1 on underdogs, and 2-2 on underdogs on the moneyline, for a total of 19-11-3 on sides.
For totals, it’s 11-6-1 on overs and only 1-4 on unders, historically one of my most profitable groups but not this year. That’s a 12-10-1 record on totals so far, on 23 bets compared to 33 made on sides. Pretty similar stuff to past years, with the bias toward overs acknowledged in past weeks as intentional, and the bias toward favorites something I’ve always had but see as a feature not a bug. I take relatively few underdog bets, but they remain a subset I do well on.
Let’s get to the Week 8 picks. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Over 44.5, -110 (BetMGM)
I’m excited to see what the Browns’ offense might look like with Jameis Winston under center, and I think it’s notable Kevin Stefanski handed play-calling duties over to his pass-first OC Ken Dorsey this week, against a defense that’s been dominant against the run but is a little more susceptible to being beaten through the air. I initially had Cleveland +11.5 flagged this week, but it’s moved all the way down to +8.
But I also had the over flagged, and we’re sticking with that. I’m not even sure how much I loved Cleveland at +11.5, as much as it definitely felt like a value. But importantly, while the Browns have been solid defensively this year, they are 29th in explosive rush % against. The Ravens’ offense leads the NFL in the same metric.
Typically, you fade explosives for more success-rate-based stuff. This one feels more notable because I don’t want a defense that is struggling in run fits against an offense that can hit you with explosives from either RB or the QB spot. We know if you’re not disciplined, the Ravens will beat you on the ground. So I like the matchup for the Ravens, and I like this as a week where the Browns are speeding things up, ready to run a high Pass Rate Over Expected, and hopefully will find some points as well, even if in garbage time.