Week 8 sides and totals
Plus a recap of Week 7
Last week was a light one, as we focused on a couple key spots, going 2-1. The wins were solid, and I’m always happy to see the analysis not just win the bet but prove to be very right. The Dallas-Detroit under was clearly the correct play in that 24-6 game — the outcome was still very in question into the fourth quarter, when Jamaal Williams fumbled at the goal line as the Lions tried to take the lead. They were down 10-6 at that point, and the under was well secured, but the Cowboys would go on to generate three more turnovers after that point, making four total in the final period, and run away with a comfortable win.
Then there was the Colts-Titans game, where we had the Titans -2.5 at home on the idea Indianapolis — and specifically under Matt Ryan — was a team to bet against. The Titans frankly didn’t look great, but they pretty comfortably covered as the Colts once again barely threatened offensively all game. They of course went on to announce a quarterback change after the week.
The loss came Sunday night with the Steelers-Dolphins over. I’m still a little confused about what happened there — the teams combined for six scoring drives in the first half, but because four stalled and became field goal attempts, it was just 16-10 at the break. Still, 26 points on the board and fewer than 20 to go to hit the over, in a game that was looking like it should have had even more to that point.
And then, nothing. After two combined punts in the first half, we got five from each team in the final two periods, and no more points. Can’t call that one a bad beat when it missed by 18.5 points, and it was a good reminder that after the first two-and-a-half games went so well, sometimes you’re just going to miss.
Still, a 2-1 record brings us to 20-17-1 on sides and totals for the season, and we got a lot of useful information about what to expect going forward.
We have four picks this week. All plus bets are to win one unit and all minus bets are risk to win one unit, unless otherwise stated in the writeup. Let’s get to it.