Week 8 Prop Bets
Sports betting has a lot of parallels to life.
Sometimes it feels like everything is going amazing. And there’s times where sometimes everything goes wrong.
It’s normal, it’s the cyclical part of life. But the best thing you can do is to make sure you’re constantly improving and putting your best foot forward.
There’s a lot out of our control in various things, but the constant that matters in the long run is focusing on what we can control.
I say and write this mostly as a reminder to myself, but also know that if you’re fairly new to sports betting this can be a good reminder of the journey that we take when doing so.
We’re currently in a down trend right now. We’re coming off our worst week so far losing 3.01 units. This now means we’ve been down in three of the past four weeks.
It happens and it’s frustrating when it feels like our bets aren’t going right, but this was also something that we may have expected to happen.
If you read any of my posts after week 3 you would have seen me preaching about just how lucky we were getting and that we almost had an entire season of wins in those first three weeks.
And with my style of doing the longshots there is more variance week to week especially when we haven’t capitalized on a big longshot since Saquon Barkley week one.
This happens. We don’t know when the next big win is going to come. For all we know we might not win another all year or we could win it in each of the next three weeks.
All of that is really outside of our control, but we can continue to make sure we have a good sounds process each week.
Part of being a good sports bettor is being able to take advantage of mistakes that sportsbooks make.
If you’re of the mindset that sportsbooks are perfect and know everything, it may be time to challenge that opinion.
They are very sharp on quite a few things, but overall there are markets they don’t focus on as much and mistakes DO happen.
We saw that this week on Fanduel in the Weekly Specials market.
Fanduel had created a full market for all players Friday morning. Lines were pretty efficient for the most part. Then randomly during the day these lines shifted massively.
Josh Jacobs who was roughly a ~8/1 favorite to have the most rushing yards this week moved all the way down to 35/1. Henry moved from 5/1 to 11/1. We even got some Eno Benjamin at 300/1.
Shoutout to a member in our discord for pointing them out. This was such a unique experience to where I really didn’t make any plays official and just tagged everyone and told them to go crazy.
Through seven weeks of following me and the processes I put in place for the specials, it’s fairly easy to see when a very mispriced line is put on these markets.
In rare occasions like this we have no idea how long these markets will be up before they catch it and remove it.
Low and behold not even three minutes after everybody was notified about this, the entire market got taken down for over 24 hours.
This is why it’s so important to be in our Discord to be notified of stuff like this in real time. If you’re subscribed and haven’t joined the Discord check your “welcome” email from Stealing Lines to join.
This week is interesting as we have a couple new QBs in Malik Willis and Sam Ehlinger starting that offered unique opportunities on their rushing props.
Overall there are less plays this week than normal. I’m just trying to be pickier with my spots and be more confident in these plays. Lines are much sharper now than they were earlier in the season.
Also all the weekly specials lines we played moved in our favor as there was a pretty limited list to choose from at first until the mishap happened. So none are making it onto this substack this week.
Volume can sometimes be a bad thing at this point in the season.
Anyways enough talking let’s get some bets rolling and hope we run good this week!
Week 8 Bets
Derrick Henry over 22.5 rushing attempts -120 (MGM/DraftKings)
Played 98.5 rushing yards in Discord.
Malik Willis is starting and if it wasn’t already heavily leaning towards the run this only pushes it further in that direction.
HOU is last in Rush D DVOA and Explosive Rush Rate allowed.
Henry has 28 and 30 carries in each of the past two weeks. Assuming health and not some totally unforessen game script, this is a pretty confident play
Smash spot of smash spots.
Risk 1.12 units to win 1 unit
Play to -130