Week 7 sides and totals
And recapping the heavy and profitable Week 6
I wound up playing 12 picks last week, even after shrugging off a couple of additional leans. I usually don’t have that much interest in a given NFL weekend, but it was just that kind of slate, and it went well, with a 7-3-2 finish that was probably closer to a slightly bigger score than missing too many of those wins.
The one win that was a decent sweat was the Bengals -3.5 on the road, as they needed a late Chase Brown TD where he could have kneeled before the end zone to cover. Still, that would have meant a Bengals 3-point win and a pretty rough beat; I’m not sure Giants +3.5 was the “right” side of that or anything. Just a game where both teams struggled to execute in some key spots and we got there.
Part of why I got to a dozen picks was taking two in four different games. I’ve done that a lot over the past few years, trying to play an angle where I like both a side and total to hit or else for a split to come in, and I find it unlikely I’d miss both bets. As it played out, we split two of the four, and the other two each featured a push and a 1-0-1 record. But the key thing is I do believe the logic for the tandem bets was valid in all four outcomes.
Colts/Titans was a split where we got the +120 moneyline hit on Indy, but the 20-17 score kept it just under a 42.5 total. Lions/Cowboys split where DET -3 was locked in very early, but Detroit ran up the score so much it didn’t stay under a 52.5 total despite the Cowboys only scoring in the single digits, in a 47-9 game. Quite often those types of scorelines go under, obviously, and the logic felt good. Dallas went for it on fourth down and failed in their own territory multiple times to set up short fields for Detroit.
The other two were funky, each including a push. In Cardinals/Packers, the thesis was locked in, with Green Bay smashing, but Arizona just couldn’t hold up their end of the bargain, including a late fumble in the red zone. We also got a missed field goal late in the third quarter from Green Bay, from only 44 yards, and they’ve replaced their kicker this week as a result. Those couple things, and only 3 combined points in the fourth quarter, kept it to a push and we only got paid off on the GB -5.
And then Washington was as advertised, keeping with the Ravens in Baltimore in a way that was very exciting to see. The over didn’t hit until late, and we were at risk of missing both of these if the game finished 30-20, which would have been eerie as I literally wrote in my breakdown last week, “In those scenarios, you’re talking about Washington potentially backdoor covering in something like a 30-20 game late, in a way that would also bring the over into play.” (I went on to talk about how losing both on something like a 30-20 scoreline was a risk I was willing to take.)
Anyway, the frustration here was just that Dan Quinn elected to punt on 4th-and-6 from the plus-44, on the road, as underdogs, while down 7, with 7 minutes left in the third. Baltimore went and scored a TD to push it to 14, Washington answered, and they traded scores the rest of the way. It was literally the only drive of the second half that either team didn’t score on, and just a horrendous misreading of the situation, given Jayden Daniels was Quinn’s only shot to win that game. Daniels essentially never had another shot to cover the +7, but he converted a pair of fourth downs (one via defensive pass interference) to at least push, and he also put up enough points to make sure the over hit, and for all that we salute him.
The other solo picks were the under in Jaguars/Bears, which was a clear miss, the Steelers -3 on the road in Vegas (won 32-13), and over 40.5 in a Bills/Jets game that went over despite only 6 points in a second half that featured a bunch of missed kicks, because there were 37 points in the first two quarters (it was tied 20-20 midway through the third and the only sweat to go under was if the game somehow actually finished as a tie).
All in all, a 7-3-2 week where more of the pushes and losses genuinely felt like they could have been wins than vice versa. Really only the one win felt like it could have been a loss, or wasn’t the right side. Felt really good watching it, and we’ll look to keep it rolling this week, including some more of those tandem bets.
For the season, we’re up to 26-19-4 for +5.18 units. A couple interesting splits include now being profitable on away favorites at 5-4-1, and the over bets moving to 9-5-1 while unders are now 1-4 — both of those are reminders that trends are important to keep in mind but not the only consideration when you have conviction on specific plays. I was 0-2 on unders this week, and I would have said those were two of my least favorite bets this week, but I wanted to keep myself balanced, which I think was smart.
More broadly, though, to the point on overs and unders, I wrote in my fantasy football newsletter Stealing Signals extensively after about Week 2 how the sky wasn’t falling to the degree people thought with the scoring trends, and I’ve intentionally been hammering low lines with a bias toward overs, and finding success on that macro edge so far. The lines are obviously adjusting, but good to see something like that paying off here after some trouble with similar last year.
That trouble last year helps explain why I’m not going all in on these types of decisions, and am finding what would be smart ways to hedge the macro positions with unders where I think they could fit. When the macro position is right, as it was last week, those unders might both miss, but the rest of the portfolio looks very strong for the week. If the macro position is wrong, you hope that the two unders you identified as good ways to play that come in, and then the rest of the portfolio battles and it’s still a decent week. The sides were 5-0-1 last week, and the biggest reminder was my stronger edge remains in identifying the teams to back.
To that end, the team-level futures I put out there are all looking awesome. The Chiefs’ over 11.5 is looking great, plus-money alt win overs on the Broncos at 6.5 and 7.5 feel awesome with them at 4-3, the Seahawks over 7.5 and alt over 9.5 both have legs but the recent three-game losing streak is tough there (they are 3-3 now), and the Cowboys plus-money unders at 9.5 and 8.5 feel great to me, too (also 3-3, with a tough five weeks coming out of their bye).
We’re feeling good, and while I don’t have the same conviction across the slate this week, I got a few to fire. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Over 41.5, -110 (BetRivers)
Also playable at more widely available 42
In taking the under in last week’s London game, I wrote about how the Europe games last year were overwhelmingly lower-scoring, and there were some slower ones in 2022 as well. One team-level exception was when Jacksonville overperformed in an outright win as solid underdogs against the Bills in their second game in a row over there.
Jacksonville’s in that spot again this week, as once again this year they were scheduled for back-to-back games in London. They got beat last week, and might just be quitting, but the Patriots just got gashed for long runs by both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce last week at home, and now travel overseas for a matchup where I expect Tank Bigsby to look solid, and Jacksonville to have success on the ground to build off, which helps everything offensively.
On the other side, Drake Maye was as advertised in his first game, throwing for three touchdowns and rushing for 38 yards while also taking four sacks and turning the ball over three times. He was willing to push the ball downfield, which went well at times and was costly at other times, but it’s the kind of quarterback profile we expected him to have, and it’s similar really to what Trevor Lawrence brings. Both QBs can hit for big plays in this game, or also could have turnovers that create great field position for the opponent.
Neither defense is very good, and we get a low total here. I’m willing to bet Jacksonville looks surprisingly better than they should, and then Maye keeps the Patriots looking solid, too, and perhaps the Patriots are even in position to win this one.
My big concern would be that they are just very flat, and also very run heavy — even though Maye put up a bunch of numbers last week, they trailed heavily all game and that pushed them to pass a lot, and they still wound up with a very low -10.0% Pass Rate Over Expected. So there’s some concern they go too run-heavy, but I’m still willing to play these matchups at a number in the low forties.