Week 7 sides and totals
Plus a Week 6 recap
I kept the plays light last week, but that didn’t go as planned. It’s always tough to judge leans when you don’t put them in writing, but a couple games I was considering did go the way I’d considered, and then the results of the four official plays were rough.
The Packers-Bengals under was pretty insane, with Ja’Marr Chase making a ridiculous fourth-down play for a TD, then the Bengals getting a conversion, then the Packers throwing downfield while running out the clock, and converting, allowing them to get into field goal range quickly enough that they wouldn’t just run out the clock, which they then did. Also, Jordan Love had a first down run on second down, but slid way earlier than he needed to, leading to a third-and-short in a spot just like Buffalo was in a couple weeks ago, where really a couple runs would have been the obvious move, but they threw on third and then kicked on fourth. A first down was kneeldowns. The field goal made it 45 total points to go over 44.5, so all of those things were necessary, including the Bengals’ 2-point conversion, and their fourth-down TD, and the quick advancing into field goal range, and the made kick on the other end. Woof.
Then on Monday night we got it the other way, with the over 49.5 falling short by a half point when a game-winning field goal brought it to 49 at the end. We had multiple missed field goals earlier in the game, and the total was up to 46 with over 10 minutes remaining, but both offenses struggled late until that field goal.
Laying the points with the Commanders in that game was a clearer miss, and then NE -3.5 was one that was in jeopardy but was our sole winner. But I still think that one was clearly the right side, as they did still cover despite some tough calls going against them that cost them some big plays, including a deep passing TD.
So it was a 1-3 week, when 3-1 was very much in play. We move on. Here are the Week 7 plays. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: JAX +3, -105 (DraftKings, BetMGM)
Fair warning: A huge part of this is the travel stuff. The Rams took the unusual step of traveling to London overnight from Friday to Saturday, giving them very little time to adjust. They also stayed in Baltimore and practiced there all week, after last week’s win over the Ravens, which was clearly so they didn’t have to readjust to west coast time and then go all the way to London, but it also meant they didn’t even get to sleep in their own beds or any of that, which further makes it hard to understand why they didn’t just get over to London and let people adjust.
The Rams are one of the sharpest teams in the league with a lot of the sport science stuff, and they use it in the draft process and all of that. Probably this means the travel stuff is overblown, and I’m wrong. But it’s unprecedented, as that article details. We just don’t see this. And the Jaguars traveled early in the week, like more teams have been doing in 2025, and are more adjusted. They’re also a team that goes over there every year, and Trevor Lawrence and some of the more experienced Jags have a lot of experience with it. The Rams haven’t played in London since 2019, per that above linked CBS Sports article.
It’s enough for me, man. The Rams are the better team on paper, and the Jags have lived off turnover luck, but Liam Coen is a good coach and I don’t think he’s incapable of getting a result here. I debated the moneyline, but I like taking the points given the way Sean McVay sometimes calls close games late. The Rams have a tendency to play close games, so even if they do play well, we could still make out alright with the points.