Week 7 Prop Bets + Weekly Specials
The last week has not been the kindest to us. After starting the week up 2.69 units after Thursday night, we had negative days on both Sunday and Monday to out the final week tally to -1.91 units from Week 6.
And now we’re starting this week 0-2 down 2.15 units. It’s frustrating, but we had been running pretty good for the most part so a downswing is natural at some point.
All in all we are up 16.43 units on props so far which is very encouraging.
The ladders and alt plays that we have been playing have run extremely poor the last few weeks. It’s hard not to be a little tilted about some of the results.
We’ve had three separate occasions in which a player has missed their first ladder by one yard this year. That’s not including the Bears last Thursday night where Mooney missed it by two yards and had Fields not ripped off a 42 yard run, would’ve likely hit his ladder as well.
I’m going to give it a couple more weeks before I self analyze the first half of the season and see where my strengths/weaknesses have been and adjust the process based on that.
I’ve toned down on bets a bit this week. That’s mainly due to some uncertain games that I have a harder time getting a feel for.
The Dolphins and Steelers game is one I like a lot and have identified as a target for plays this week.
A lot of the props that we have played are in our Discord. We utilize the Discord to make sure we can get picks out in real-time before the lines move. If you’re subscribed, check your welcome email and click the Discord link to join us.
Let’s have a good week.
Week 7 Bets
Zach Wilson under 30.5 passing attempts -122 (FanDuel)
Played in Discord at -117
Since Wilson has been back the Jets have a -7.3% PROE. Wilson has 21 and 18 attempts last two games.
Elijah Moore is out and missing a big part of their passing attack.
The Broncos are the number 1 pass D DVOA team this year. Surtain has completely shut down any WR against him.
Winds are expected to be roughly 24 MPH and should linger around 20 MPH tomorrow during the game.
Breece Hall has changed this offense and it’s likely they ride him.
Jets are favorited in this game likely not needing positive game script for Wilson.
Risk 1.755 units to win 1.5 units
Play to 29.5