Week 7 Player Props
Back on track with a 7-2 stretch — let’s keep it rolling into Week 7
Hey Guys,
We’re heading into Week 7 — nearly halfway through the season. After a cold start, we’ve gone 7-2 over the last two weeks. Last week we missed on Derrick Henry’s under, but both Christian McCaffrey and Trevor Etienne hit, while Kimani Vidal smashed expectations.
The McCaffrey under was tight late in the fourth quarter — but that’s exactly why we target unders. The assumption that a player will continue to see opportunities deep into a game doesn’t always hold true. Sometimes, simply outlasting the clock is enough to cash. All of the data I’ve seen continues to support that, all else equal, unders hit at a higher rate than overs.
Vidal was our only over of the week. He’s a player I was intrigued by because of my RotoViz background. I try to take a holistic view of players that includes their college profile, and Vidal has far more potential to be an above-average running back than Hassan Haskins. Sure, Vidal could disappoint, but Haskins — now in his age 26 season and averaging just 3.0 yards per carry for his career — has shown us plenty of evidence that he’s not the answer. The challenge, as always, is assuming rational coaching.
Anyway, let’s move on to Week 7. Below are this week’s player props. As always, make sure you’re in the Discord — lines are moving faster than ever, and that’s where plays get posted first in real time.
Week 7 Props
1U Rachaad White under 55.5 Rushing Yards (FD -114)
Collab with Connor Allen from 4for4.
The Lions have been among the best teams against the run, ranking 3rd in blended rankings of DVOA, PFF, and EPA. They’re allowing just 69.8 rushing yards per game to opposing rushers.
Whether it’s their strength against the run or their dominance as a team (5.5-point favorites in this one), the Lions force teams to have the 4th highest pass-rate over expectation against them.
Without Bucky and with at least 75% of the snaps against top-17 run defenses, White has gone over this line in just 2 of 10 games.
Best Current Line: BetRivers 51.5 -114