Week 6 sides and totals
Plus a recap of Week 5
Week 5 was a bit of an annoying one, ultimately finished up 4-5 but with the big Broncos moneyline hit at +185 to be something of a wash.
Seattle -3 had a shot until they gave up the late TD to Baker Mayfield, and then Kansas City -3 also almost held on despite a massive swing on the 99-yard pick-six, but Jacksonville also stole that one late with a DPI in the end zone and a fall-down touchdown. The Chiefs out-gained Jacksonville 476 to 319, and their 476 yards were the seventh-most by any team in a game this season, which was despite not having the last real possession or an overtime period or any of that late juice. They were just pretty good offensively all game against a good defense, and their defense also frankly performed pretty well, but penalties and turnovers will sometimes decide games (the Chiefs had 13 penalties versus 4 for Jacksonville).
Seattle was similarly penalized more than Tampa and similarly lost the turnover battle, while out-gaining their opponent. Getting one of those two games would have been much easier to accept, and would’ve made it a 5-4 week with some nice profitability thanks to the Denver pick.
The other picks were pretty straightforward. The Commanders-Chargers over just didn’t get there because of some of the stuff that makes overs tough these days — despite moving the ball, the two teams wound up with just eight possessions each, which was a risk and concern with the pace here — while the Dolphins-Panthers did pretty comfortably go over. The Colts covered by a mile, but that was about as far as the gap by which the Jets got destroyed. I unfortunately took the under in that Jets game as well, which we also lost. It had a shot, but we honestly didn’t really deserve either bet with how bad of a read I had on that game.
The Vikings-Browns over was another strong pick. It hit late, but if it didn’t, it would’ve been a pretty rough beat. Both offenses moved the ball fine, and the idea the Vikings’ rest advantage might make it tough for the Browns’ defensive line to wreck the game was I think a strong take (given they, uh, didn’t wreck the game, like they should have on paper). There were some tough turnovers, a missed field goal, and the dreaded-for-the-over-bet drives that move the ball but stall out just before field goal range and then a punt pins the opponent deep. The inverse of a long field goal try at least guarantees good field position for the opponent, whether it’s made (which we obviously like) and a kickoff generates good position, or it’s missed but at least the other team starts outside their own red zone. Anyway, we got there despite all that, with a late Vikings’ TD.
So it was a 4-5 week. Lost both bets on that Jets game, and the over in WAS-LAC, plus both those -3 bets that were both covering until late scores. The Denver moneyline upset was pretty fortunate as the signature win of the week, but that’s also expected when you make a +185 play, that it’s more about there being a shot for the game to go your way than an expectation. And there was, and it did, which was nice.
We’re now at an even 20-20 on the season, for -1.19 units. So far, we’re 9-13 on spreads, but both underdog moneyline bets have hit, so 11-13 on sides. That splits out to 3-1 on dogs and 8-12 on favorites, and we’ve talked in past years I do have a bias toward favorites but it’s also not as simple as just picking more dogs; my win percentage there wouldn’t carry over without the selectiveness I tend to employ.
We’re 9-7 on totals, with a 6-3 record on overs and 3-4 record on unders. I more proactively try to fight my bias for overs by having a lower threshold for under bets in terms of confidence I’m willing to move forward with. Arguably, that’s also led to more selectivity with the over picks I’ve actually settled on. It’s all pretty small sample, but I was quite a bit better at overs than unders on official plays last year as well.
Let’s get to the Week 6 picks. It’s a bit of a boring week with a lot of bigger favorites, injuries, and uncertainty — but not the good kind where there is opportunity. More like the kind that feels like flipping a coin.
I do have a few picks I like, but I’m going to start with a quick “no bet.” As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos
Pick: No Bet
I just wanted to give a couple thoughts here, despite not making a pick, since I’ve talked about travel schedule for these international games. The Broncos reportedly traveled directly from Philadelphia to London, on an overnight flight after their Sunday win, putting them in England all week.
The Jets also went early, leaving on Monday, which was reported in a piece contrasting with their plan the last time they went when they traveled on Thursday.
We’ve talked about the travel advantages in the international games as a potential edge, and it was only a matter of time before that pretty obvious opportunity closed up, because teams started to get wise to how silly their decision-making was. This week, we get two teams that clearly did some homework on it and both have given their rosters plenty of time to get acclimated.
I just wanted to note I did check on this, and there’s nothing here for this week. (I probably also wanted to emphasize that the NFL is changing their behavior in a way that tacitly admits there was something here, which is kind of cool, in a “I was right” way.)
I don’t see another bet here I like enough, especially given it’s no lock both teams will look great but we don’t have a good sample of teams who both travel 5+ days before the game in these international spots.