Week 6 sides and totals
Plus the $100 Underdog winner, and a Week 5 recap
I wrote last week I was going to focus more on sides than totals, but still wound up picking three totals against four sides. I went 4-0 on the sides, including two underdog moneyline hits, but 0-3 on totals again, moving to an unfathomable 1-16 on totals so far this year. Couple with the 9-6 on sides and moneylines, we’re at 10-22 for the season.
The over/under bets have been catastrophic, obviously. I can’t help but laugh. What’s somewhat funny on the sides and moneylines, is of the six losses there, we’ve had three that missed by one point or fewer (one was 0.5 points). That 9-6 total could feasibly be even stronger, and I need to focus on picking sides for real this time, because I couldn’t possibly argue I have an edge picking totals right now.
Underdog giveaway!
Before we get into the Week 6 picks, let’s real quick announce this week’s $100 Underdog winner, and that is our buddy who goes by KITMO in Discord. Congrats! That will be deposited directly into your UD account.
For anyone who hasn’t signed up yet, just sign up once at this form and you’ll be entered into our weekly $100 giveaways all year long. We’ve already given away $400, and will be giving away more than $1500 more, so make sure to get signed up.
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
Pick: BAL -4.5, -110 (widely available)
There are some matchup-related things to note here, but I’d be lying if I was picking this game based on those. The Ravens being favored by 4.5 more or less fits what I’d expect in a neutral setting, if perhaps a bit heavy on Baltimore’s side based on what we’ve seen from them.
But I’m picking this game almost entirely due to travel plans. Baltimore got over to England Monday, then took Tuesday off, and then practiced there this week. Tennessee traveled over Friday, a move the Bills made last week, and it arguably cost them.
We don’t have a huge sample on London games, but I’ve kept an eye on this stuff, and feel it matters. The pick I was closest to making last week but didn’t was to back Jacksonville, because they were over in England for the full week prior, while becoming the first team to ever play back-to-back games abroad. I thought that gave them a significant advantage, but I couldn’t pull the trigger on picking against a Bills team that was rolling heading into that game.
But we saw them come out flat, and then reactions have I think overstated concerns about the Bills. We’re talking about a five-hour time difference here, even for East Coast teams. Football is a physical sport where being well-rested and in top condition matters. Not every player is going to be impacted, but if a few are a little more sluggish than usual on each side of the ball, it’s going to add up. Simply put, I like the Ravens to look much sharper in this game.