Week 6 Prop Bets and Weekly Specials
Last week was a roller coaster of emotions for us. It honestly feels like we are actually running decently bad right now, but yet I went up 2.08 last week.
I completely whiffed on the Jets and Bengals ladders that included the quarterbacks and both top wide receivers on each team.
We also were a career day from Austin Ekeler on the ground to ruin our 60/1 Rhamondre Stevenson most rushing yards of the week ticket.
Losing to Austin Ekeler was extremely tilting considering he’s the type of running back we usually DON’T have to worry about on a week to week basis for these specials.
Ekeler had played in 76 career games prior to this week and had only eclipsed 80 yards rushing on four occasions. His career high was 117 yards on the ground.
Unfortunately a couple times a year there will be a week in which somebody who doesn’t hit the profile for a weekly winner ends up winning. Last year we had Rex Burkhead carve up 149 yards on the ground and win the week.
It happens, but it’s very frustrating when this happens on a week in which we nailed someone like Rhamondre and had everything go right for him to get to that point.
Oh well.
We’ve been hitting pretty nice on a lot of the Thursday night games.
I did something awful and gross this week. I dipped my toes into defensive player props for the Bears/Commanders game.
And it actually turned out nice.
We bet on Montez Sweat to get a sack at +250 and Daron Payne to get a sack at +205. Both hit.
I wouldn’t ever expect for me to play defensive props - I know maybe like 15-20 defensive players in the league. But this matchup was extremely lopsided from an OL/DL perspective and felt worth the dabble.
Overall we’re up 2.69 units on the week so far.
This week we’ve played tons of unders and didn’t bet a ton of weekly specials due to much sharper pricing.
Best Bets for Week 6
Andy Dalton under 29.5 pass attempts -109 (Barstool/BetRivers)
With Andy Dalton at QB the Saints have a -15.6% PROE and are running the ball on 53.8% of plays.
Dalton has had attempts of 24 and 28 last two starts.
Now Chris Olave is expected to be out.
The Bengals are the 6th slowest paced team this year.
This is one of my favorite plays of the week.
Risk 1.635 units to win 1.5 units
Play to 28.5