Week 5 sides and totals
Plus this week's $100 Underdog winner
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Week 4 review
I opened the Week 4 version of this column saying I got a little too conservative in Week 3, after the disastrous Week 2. I was feeling a little better headed into Week 4, but unfortunately things didn’t go as planned. I went 1-4 on Sunday for a 2-5 week after splitting TNF, moving us to 6-19 for the season. That’s 5-6 on sides/moneylines and 1-13 on totals. Suffice to say we’re mostly hitting sides this week.
I’ve also been sick this week, so we’re not gonna dwell on the results, and the pick writeups will be fairly brief. Let’s get to the Week 5 picks. All minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Pick: IND moneyline, +120 (FanDuel, BetMGM, PointsBet)
Pick: Over 43, -110 (BetMGM, Ceasars, PointsBet)
This line opened with the Colts favored, but moved across zero to where we can get plus money on home underdogs. I’m with it. Shane Steichen has shown to be a very competent offensive designer, maximizing the skill set of his rookie QB. Anthony Richardson’s designed rush rate has stayed high, while Jonathan Taylor coming back means the Colts will have a dynamic multi-faceted attack on the ground. I think most see this as a difficult matchup for the Colts, where Richardson might have to throw too much, but it’s also not hard to argue this will be one of the biggest challenges that Titans’ front will face all year. There is a strong belief in NFL circles that RBs shouldn’t impact lines, but I think JT in this Steichen system is an exception. It’s strength against strength, but I do like the Colts to challenge the Titans defensively in a way the Bengals did not last week.
Tennessee’s also come out flat in both road games so far this year, while looking a lot better at home. With some offensive linemen returning, I do expect they’ll play better in this spot, which is why I like the over between two teams that like to play with some tempo.