Week 5 Prop Bets and Weekly Specials
Last week was a complete rollercoaster for our bets. At one point it looked like Saquon was going to bring us home the rushing title at 19/1 with a nice firm lead with 146 rushing yards.
Then Rashaad Penny came out of nowhere ripping off a 41 yard rushing touchdown to bring it close. Then the Lions went ahead and scored a touchdown which gave the ball back to the Seahawks.
If Penny was held up under seven yards to burn the clock out we would have won. Penny was facing a 3rd and 5 with 1 minute left and the Lions had one timeout to spare. Penny gashed the defense for a first down giving us an incredibly bad beat to this.
But whatever goes around comes around. We bet Brady most passing yards on the day and the Bucs were in some serious garbage time needing 46 yards to beat Goff for the week.
On the last play of the game Brady threw a pass that put him over Goff for most passing yards at the buzzer. It was exhilarating and saved an otherwise bad week.
It’s these emotions and sweats that make betting on these games so fun and interesting.
After a great week where we hit 3 of 4 of our ladders, we went 0 for 6 this week. It was just one of those weeks where not a lot went right.
This was my first week not coming out positive on the week as I was down 0.64 units. It happens and it’s always nice that the down week was not even that bad.
What made it better was that Ben went 6-1-1 and was up 5.12 units on his plays last week. He had an awesome week where he basically nailed all his picks and analysis.
I’m always wanting to self-evaluate and find ways that I can be better and see how I can improve on a week to week basis.
Part of the reason I think I had a bad week was I left too much up to variance in our weekly betting portfolio. Variance to me is the weekly specials and attacking those alternate lines on receivers.
Last week the portfolio I only had 12 regular plays and six alternate lines. In technicality those six alternate lines are all “overs” and four of my 12 plays were overs. So I had 8 unders and 10 “overs”.
It’s not the most ideal strategy for over 50% of the bets to be overs. I’m trying to get close to a ratio of 65-70% on unders on a weekly basis.
Unders have proven to be the most profitable way to beat the prop market.
Including Thursday’s game I have 16 unders and nine “overs” right now on tap for week 5. I’m very content with this setup right now and we saw it start to play dividends on Thursday night.
This week started off amazing as we are up 3.9 units to start the week. We went 6-0 on our base plays and only missed on the Courtland Sutton alternate lines.
In terms of a base set of plays heading into the week, I’m more confident about where I stand before the week starts than I have any other week. It remains to be seen how the results play out for us.
All of these plays have already been released in the Discord where we have notified everybody in real time as I make plays. If you are subscribed and are not in the Discord, check your welcome email from Stealing Lines for the link to the Discord.
Plays for Week 5
All lines are accurate at the time of writing.
Kenny Pickett under 205.5 passing yards -115 (WynnBET)
Since 2000 there’s been 19 QBs drafted between picks 11-32 in the NFL draft.
In their first career start 13/19 (68.4%) had under 200 yards passing.
In fact only three had over 225 yards passing.
Taking into account the Bills are the top ranked Pass D according to Football Outsiders, this is a smash spot.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Play to 199.5