Week 5 Plays of the Week
Plus Week 4 Review
Last week was another rough week where it felt like things really didn’t go our way.
I felt like there was a couple spots to get aggressive this week and had three plays that were 1.5 unit plays. All three lost.
Now looking back on how I’ve done this year on my my most confident plays (qualifying as 1.5 or more units risked) I am now 3-8. I touched on the plays after week 1 and what went wrong on those plays after I got aggressive and it felt like we ran into bad variance.
This time it felt very similar. Our three big plays were Kyren Williams under 57.5 rushing yards, Joe Mixon under 52.5 rushing yards and Jerome Ford over 13.5 rush attempts.
I felt extremely strong about all of them heading in, but if you look at the box scores of all three of these games then you would understand. The Rams/Colts matchup ended up being a very close game that went into overtime, but the Rams were up 20-0 very early on in the game leading to a lot of positive game script for Williams early on.
The most tilting might’ve been the Joe Mixon stuff as he only had nine carries heading into the fourth quarter against the Titans top three rush defense down 24 points and he somehow mustered out five more carries to take him over this number.
Ford was dead from the start when the Ravens were just trouncing the Browns and were forced into extremely negative game script.
I wanted to check myself to see if maybe I was getting too overconfident in certain plays so I went back last year to see how I did on my most confident plays.
I went 12-8 on plays with 1.5 or more units risked on them last year. So either I’m getting very unlucky this year on the plays I like the most or maybe I’m not as good as deciphering my current confidence levels on these plays or could be a mix of both.
I know from here on out I’m going to be much more selective in my bigger plays and keep tabs on my results on those specific plays.
Underdog Pick Em of the Week
Last week was kind of a bad weekend all around.
My goal is to always be as transparent as possible through both the good and the bad. Unfortunately this season as a whole there has been more bad than good and the same came with the Underdog Pick ‘Ems this week.
I only did 17 Pick ‘Ems last week mainly due to the the London game early on and watching that amongst turned the routine upside down.
Heading into this week it’s also going to be a light week for me as most of the options for lines on these entries come on Saturday as you can basically choose five or six different projections per player.
Unfortunately I am in Las Vegas right now and Underdog is unavailable here so the tracker will be rather short next week.
I tried getting a few up before hand but the menu is pretty bleak right now.
The Eagles are a big pass funnel defense with Kupp coming the Rams should naturally be more pass heavy. Puka Nacua has been so good and will likely get enough work against Darius Slay this week who has given up the 6th most receiving yards in coverage this year.
AJ Brown has a good matchup this week and is correlated to that Jalen Hurts over as well.
You can tail here
Best plays of the week
Lines are accurate as of 2:46 AM ET
Kyren Williams under 14.5 yards longest rush -122 (Fanduel)
This is a pretty aggregious line as Kyren has only one rush all year over 10 yards.
Kyren also has been pretty bad as a rusher with -48 rush yards over expected this season.
Not only that but Philadelphia has the 3rd lowest explosive rush percentage of any team this year and are 1st in Rush D DVOA.
The Eagles also are the 4th biggest pass funnel defense in the league, indicating a likely decent heavy passing attack with the Rams.
The Eagles have one given up one rush longer than 12 yards to a running back this year - a 15 yard scamper by Brian Robinson last week.
Risk 1.22 units to win 1 unit
Play to -125 or Kyren Williams under 57.5 rushing yards