Week 5 Player Props
Staying sharp through bye weeks and bouncing back with value plays
Hey Guys,
Hope everyone had a great week. We’ve officially hit bye week season, and with injuries piling up, things are starting to get interesting across the NFL.
Last week we went 3-3 — the losses were George Pickens’ under on yards, James Cook’s under on attempts, and Brock Bowers’ over on receiving. I expected more from the Packers’ defense against a Cowboys offense lacking playmakers, but it’s another reminder that betting against talented players in logical spots can be dangerous. The Packers were treated like an elite defense and still surrendered 40 points to a CeeDee Lamb–less offense.
I felt good about the James Cook under - especially after Joe Brady’s quote: “I have to trust our guys. We were at our best last year when everybody was rolling.” The Saints kept it close, and Cook’s continued usage spike was the difference.
As for Brock Bowers, even after logging full practices last week, it was clear he wasn’t fully healthy. Whether it was a setback or lingering discomfort, he admitted he’s not himself right now — and missing Thursday and Friday practices again raises concern for this week.
Enough about the past — it’s over with. What matters is learning from it. I go back through every play to evaluate what worked and what didn’t so I can continue sending out bets with an edge.
And a quick reminder: make sure you’re in the Discord. I sent out a Christian McCaffrey play Thursday night that cashed, and I’ll include it below so you can see the reasoning behind it.
Let’s get into this week’s card.
Week 5 Player Props
1U Christian McCaffrey under 14.5 Longest Rush (DK -125)
1U Christian McCaffrey under 14.5 Longest Rush (DK -115)
Fading CMC is never fun but the Rams are a tough matchup. There are several things I like that point in the direction of the under:
McCaffrey is under this line in 3 of 4 this season and 6 of 8 since the start of last season
The 49ers have the 3rd worst explosive run %
The Rams held Jonathan Taylor to a long of 12 yards, Barkley to a long of 12 yards, Tony Pollard to 10 and Nick Chubb to 13
The Rams rank 10th best in explosive run %
I’ve always had a theory that it may be a good idea to target older RB unders on Thursday nights. They’re older, have less time to recover, and thus, aren’t playing at their best. I had ChatGPT create a script to look at since 2010, how RBs who average 15 or more carries per game, age 29 or older fared on Thursday nights.
The sample is small (22 games), so I don’t want to draw any big conclusions, but the RBs workload essentially stayed the same, while the yards per carry efficiency fell (from 4.17 YPC in other games to 3.54 on the short week).
With the plethora of 49ers injuries, all eyes should be on McCaffrey tonight. I expect the rushing attack to struggle.
1U Saquon Barkley over 12.5 Receiving Yards (MGM -120)
Saquon is over in 2 out of 4. This is more of a matchup play. The Broncos are one of the teams who can force the Eagles to pass. They have a good run defense and a strong team that can keep the game close, as indicated by a 3.5-point spread.
Starting RBs have done the following against Denver this season:
Week 1: Tony Pollard 1 reception for 29 receiving yards
Week 2: Jonathan Taylor 2 receptions for 50 receiving yards
Week 3: Omarion Hampton 6 receptions for 59 receiving yards
Week 4: Chase Brown 3 receptions for 31 receiving yards
The Broncos have been an exploitable matchup for RB receiving. Each of these running backs has hit their season-high in receiving against Denver.