Week 4 sides and totals
Plus a recap of a happy Week 3
Last week went well, with a 5-2 record on sides and totals. I usually recap any bad beats in the intro, but both losses were pretty comfortable misses, although Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love could have helped us out and put Cleveland away. They wound up losing outright in regulation despite not giving up any points until there were under four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Disaster.
I’d say we got fortunate with the Jets cover thanks to the late blocked field goal return for a touchdown, although there were some smashes too, like the no-doubt double in the Vikings-Bengals game, Indy covering in Tennessee by a mile, and the Raiders and Commanders combining for 65 points to easily go over their number. It was a good week.
After the slow start, that brings us to 12-13 on the year. Let’s jump into the Week 4 bets. I really apologize for releasing these late on Friday night, but I’m headed to a big college football game early tomorrow and I didn’t want to sit on them until later tomorrow night.
As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Dublin)
Pick: MIN -2.5, -114 (FanDuel)
We’re dipping into the international series. In past years, I’ve commented on travel schedules on these types of games, but both teams had the same itinerary, flying out Thursday night and landing in Ireland Friday morning. We also get Aaron Rodgers, who has been throwing the ball fine, versus Carson Wentz, who is Carson Wentz.
So why are we laying the points with the Vikings? Well, everything else. The Steelers are just not a great team right now. They’re 2-1 but have been out-gained in every game by at least 100 total yards. They won in Week 1 thanks in large part to a fumbled kickoff return at a key juncture early in the fourth quarter which allowed them to score two touchdowns in under a minute of game time, and they won in New England last week largely because of the Patriots losing four (4) fumbles.
New England only punted once in that game, scoring two touchdowns on long drives but having six other drives end in turnovers, including a late turnover on downs deep in Pittsburgh territory when DeMario Douglas inexplicably went backward instead of falling forward on a fourth-down reception at the sticks.
For the season, this Steelers’ defense has given up the fifth most yards per play. Per Sam Hoppen, they rank 26th in success rate allowed, and 31st in passing success rate, which is something I expect Kevin O’Connell to be able to exploit within his scheme to get Wentz open throws. O’Connell has consistently done that for a variety of QBs in his time in Minnesota, and Wentz had those opportunities last week. Jordan Addison’s return for the Vikings is much bigger than I think people realize. This dude is a 23-year-old, former first-round pick, Year 3 WR with a Biletnikoff on his trophy case who had a fantastic second half of last season, earning 6+ targets in all of the Vikings’ final nine games. He may not do that right away in his first game back, but he can threaten deep in a way Jalen Nailor could not, and it opens things up for Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. Or else, if he gets one-on-ones, I am happy to bet on Addison winning those against a beatable secondary.
Comparatively, the Steelers don’t have offensive weapons. D.K. Metcalf is doing fine so far, and Jaylen Warren is fun, but he was also a late addition to the injury report and is questionable. Jonnu Smith hasn’t brought much of his ball-in-hand skills after a big year in Miami last year. Calvin Austin has had a couple moments, but also some inconsistencies, including a drop in the end zone that went for a TD on a ball that he more or less was trying to intercept from his teammate Pat Freiermuth, who it was intended for.
Obviously, the Steelers are well-coached, and if anyone will handle the travel well and look better than they have a right to, Mike Tomlin’s squad would make sense as that answer. But the Vikings’ defense is legitimately tough, ranking first in EPA/play against, early-down EPA, and pass EPA/play, while sitting fourth in success rate and third in pass success rate against. Maybe Rodgers can use his veteran savvy to break down Brian Flores’ trickery, but even after a big win last week I think we’re getting a great number to be back on Minnesota here.