Week 4 sides and totals
Plus an announcement of our second $100 Underdog giveaway winner!
I was too conservative last week. In fairness, it’s tough to know how to respond to a week like Week 2, and I wanted to err on that side. But I only took three official bets in the writeup, leaving out a couple other plays I was close on.
One of those was Miami -6 or -6.5, at home. I’ve written before about the “haves” and the “have nots,” and feeling like the league is getting more polarized in the strength of its teams and the ability of different coaches to handle defensive schemes. And I think a big reason I’ve historically had success in this early-middle part of the season is quickly identifying which teams are legit, and which aren’t.
Miami is a “have” team, and I knew it before last week. Denver is not, and I was pretty sure about that, too. The line felt big, but it also stood out relative to another spot that was arguably a “have” vs. “have not” — the Cowboys as nearly two-touchdown favorites on the road at Arizona. The Chiefs were also 13-point favorites over the Bears, and the 49ers had covered a 10-point line against the Giants on Thursday night. In that context, getting Miami inside a touchdown felt like value.
Watching Miami smash in the early window Sunday was part of why I added Pittsburgh on the moneyline for Sunday Night Football, another game I had moderate conviction on. I’m obviously glad I went there and at least partially rectified the mistake of lack of conviction from my pre-week writeup. I wound up 3-1 on the week, which is a solid bounceback after the disastrous 0-9 Week 2, and brought us to 4-14 on the year.
It was another good lesson week. I’ve written before that I struggle with conviction, and it’s not a particularly common trait for a betting tout to have imposter syndrome. It’s one of those self-selecting roles where confidence is probably a prerequisite, specifically to deal with the inevitable downswings.
I have a bunch of betting friends, and while all will downplay their confidence, and tell you they are frequently unsure, there’s a common thread between the legit ones in that group. A steely resolve to trust a process. Dalton wrote about his journey as a card counter recently, and while he spends a good portion of that writeup detailing how much he was questioning himself, he also ultimately details that resolve I admire about him. He didn’t just blindly keep firing. He went back to the source where he learned some stuff, and made sure he wasn’t making mistakes. Back to the basics. Attention to detail. But a resolve in the process.
I have imposter syndrome in most things I do, but none more so than in making these betting picks. I’ve been told my whole life that these markets I’ve been successful in are unbeatable. The gambling space itself has its rules, and is full of gatekeepers who criticize the slightest misstep of their established norms. That leads to observers responding in kind; if you’re in the space and show any uncertainty, one thing that will inevitably happen is some Twitter egg firmly correcting you on something but they are actually objectively incorrect. It’s just that confidence, it comes with the space. People will confidently be wrong, but as long as they are confident, that’s such a desired quality.
So with me, there’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, where my doubt leads to more doubt, because I obviously recognize it is rare. Hence, imposter syndrome. Always concerned the carousel will stop spinning and the success will end. And after that 0-9 Week 2, I was more sure I had no secret sauce than three years of beating the books could have ever convinced me I did.
But the lesson this week is you can’t be scared to compete. Having imposter syndrome, and questioning myself, does not preclude me from being hyper-competitive. Honestly, if you play me in anything, I’m kind of an asshole. I might talk about being unsure of myself, but the second I’m competing at anything, I’m gonna find a way to win, and I’m gonna talk more shit than anyone while I do it.
You can’t be scared to compete. You have to be sharp about it, and a healthy fear can be a weapon, but you quite literally can’t win bets without making them.
Thursday Night Football was a reminder about that healthy fear, though. I had the Lions flagged as road favorites since my initial pass on Tuesday, and I ultimately released that one in Discord before the game. But I added the game’s under while writing it up — it’s not a play I had flagged on my first pass, and after announcing those bets, I have to admit I did feel shaky about my decision to add that one. And when you’re just firing, you’ll get snakebit.
It’s all about that happy medium. TNF was a game I called pretty accurately — the under could have easily come in on that game script, but points were a little too efficiently scored — but I didn’t align my bets such that I could actually realize a gain on that call. Nothing’s ever clean or easy in the betting space. There’s a lot of hindsight analysis like this, process considerations. We’re trying to get our money down in spots where we feel like there’s a real edge, but sometimes you’re going to have some bad readsro and it’s going to be circumstantial coinflip. Those are the bets you take the variance with, but the clear wins and clear losses — you want to be on the right side of more of those.
And Week 3 was about that, for me. Seeing some things I believed to be true play out that way. A reminder that imposter syndme is what it is, and consistently winning in these markets is difficult, but my results aren’t fraudulent. And this week, there are some spots I really like.
Underdog giveaway
Before we jump into the picks, I’m excited to announce this week’s winner of the Underdog giveaway. If you’re not sure what I’m talking about, our wonderful partners at Underdog are depositing $100 in the account of one lucky member of the Stealing Lines community, each week, through the Super Bowl.
We didn’t have this all lined for after Week 1, but the Week 2 winner was Discord user KDA221. We announced that in Discord, and from here on out, we’ll also announce the winner in this Substack post each week.
And the Week 3 winner was PaulV! Congrats, and that $100 has been deposited directly into your Underdog account.
For those of you who haven’t signed up for these giveaways yet, you can do so here. (If you’ve already filled that out, no worries, you’re in for the giveaways all year, no need to fill it out again. All duplicates will be removed.)
And keep on the lookout for more from us on Underdog’s great Pick ‘Em game, including Dalton’s Saturday writeups on the format each week. I’ve had a blast talking through the format with him, and we’re really getting some strategies dialed in.
Let’s get to the Week 4 picks. After the 1-1 start to the week from TNF, we’re at 5-15 on the season. Unless otherwise specified, all minus bets are to win one unit, and all plus bets are risk one unit.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Pick: CIN -2.5, -106 (FanDuel)
Pick: Over 41, -110 (widely available)
I probably feel too good about how I see this game playing out. The short version is these lines both show some concern about the Bengals’ early results and give some deference to Mike Vrabel and the Titans returning home, and you can understand why. I’m not necessarily out on the Titans playing better here, but that’s why I like the over.
As far as taking Cincinnati, I’m dipping back into the road favorite well, but I can’t understand this line being within a field goal, because how the matchup plays to Cincinnati’s strengths. Every preview you’ll read about this game will talk about how the Bengals have really struggled on offense this year, because Joe Burrow’s injury has limited his mobility and forced shorter passes. Got it.
But we’re ascribing a lot of weight to small sample where the really horrid results came against a potentially elite Browns defense, and then they also struggled in another divisional matchup with the Ravens. These teams know each other; last year the Bengals played the Ravens three times, and went 2-1, but didn’t hit 300 total yards in any of those games, which accounted for half of the six times they failed to do that all season (they also did it once against the Browns). We’re probably overreacting to divisional games, is what I’m saying.
And there are just reasons to believe as Burrow gets healthier and the playmakers make more plays (Tee Higgins isn’t going to drop multiple passes a game forever), the offense is going to improve. This matchup with a great Titans’ rush defense forces them toward what they should be doing — one of the issues the Bengals have run into at times is relying on Joe Mixon too much, because he’s just not a special running back, and they do have special talents in the passing game.
That hasn’t happened much this season, and it definitely shouldn’t happen here; the Bengals have led the NFL in called pass rate so far, and the matchups all favor the passing attack. Even slot guy Tyler Boyd gets a matchup boost to provide a legit third weapon; I expect him to have a decent game.
4for4’s Connor Allen noted the Titans have given up a ton of completions in the short area of the field.
This doesn’t get talked about enough, but Burrow’s superpower is elite accuracy. I love the matchup for him to pick apart the Titans and keep the chains moving all day, with Ja’Marr Chase an obvious after-the-catch explosion threat on every reception. I like the Bengals to look sharp offensively in this one, and to win in a way that pushes the Titans a bit and gets the scoring flowing a little bit.