Week 4 sides and totals
Plus a recap of Week 3
We went light in Week 3 with the idea it was a prove it week for a lot of teams, and there were a ton of matchups pitting teams with similar against each other. The bets went 2-1, with the Chiefs failing to cover and then outright losing to the Colts being the one loss. Kansas City fumbled a punt return inside their own 10-yard line early and got called for a questionable unsportsmanlike conduct penalty to extend a drive late that led to the Colts’ two touchdowns of the game. Kansas City also missed two kicks and Travis Kelce couldn’t bring in a very catchable pass in the end zone right before a missed fourth quarter field goal that would have pushed the game to 7 (a touchdown would have pushed it to 11). That game was a tough pill to swallow for our KC futures, too, because it was very winnable.
The two wins were comfortable on DET +6 and the over in SEA-ATL, and the long list of leans from last week did well at 5-3. This week, we’re ready to roll. There are a ton of teams I am pumped to either bet on or against. If last week was the prove it week for the NFL teams, this is the prove it week here. Let’s get it.
Last week’s 2-1 record on game picks brings us to 7-7 in this column so far for the year. The leans listed in the column are 8-3. All plus bets are to win one unit and all minus bets are risk to win one unit, unless otherwise stated in the writeup.
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions
Pick: Under 48 (-110, BetMGM)
Seattle heads to Detroit fresh off their first game with more than 50 offensive plays to face a Lions team that is short-handed, as they’ll be without each of Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, and DJ Chark. That’s their top two skill position guys and also probably their fourth best, and I think it’ll impact the way they approach this game after an aggressive first month where they’ve seen each of their three games go over 50 points.
If the Lions slow things down at all, Seattle will be happy to oblige. The Seahawks should find success running the ball against a Lions’ defense that is 25th in success rate against the run, per Sharp Football, but that might drive them to operate as a pretty run-first team and maybe not take full advantage of a Lions’ pass defense that has been very beatable outside star cornerback Jeff Okudah.
So we have a team that wants to play slow versus one that wants to play fast, but is without their best offensive playmakers. And the total is plenty high. Neither defense is good, but I’m not sure either offense will be in this game, either.