Hey Guys,
We haven’t hit the green yet this season, but I’ve dug into the matchups and planted my flags early this week. The goal is to get us back on track.
The theme is simple: buy low or sell high. Football is a game of swings—no player goes over or under every week. When someone looks unstoppable, that’s often when the market overcorrects. When a talented player is cold, that’s when value appears.
Take last Thursday as an example: Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman both started slow but cashed their receiving lines, while Zay Flowers, who opened hot, fell short. That’s the kind of recency bias we’re looking to exploit.
This week, I’m focused on timing the market and backing the talent. As always, lines can move fast, so if you’re not already in Discord, make sure to join—that’s where you’ll see bets posted first in real time.
Let’s get into this week’s plays.
Week 4 Bets
1U James Cook under 16.5 Rushing Attempts (MGM +100)
This is a sell-high. Cook is a fantastic player but going back to the start of last year, Cook has covered 16.5 attempts in just 8 of 22 games (see attached).
With a spread of 15.5, there’s no reason to force the ball to Cook. This is a game for Ray Davis to get involved. So far, no lead rusher, James Conner (12), Christian McCaffrey (13), or Kenneth Walker (16), has gone over their rushing attempts line against the Saints.