Week 3 sides and totals
Plus recapping an up-and-down Week 2
There was some good and some bad in Week 2, with the extreme good being that it wasn’t as bad as Week 2 last year. I broke my self-imposed rule to never bet on Arthur Smith games just two weeks into the year, and had to deal with the consequences (more on this in a bit; I just said “more on” out loud while typing that, and yes, I’m going to be a moron again this week).
We also lost the over in the Giants-Commanders by 4 points because of a kicker injury on one side (three TDs with no extra points plus a failed fourth-down conversion in a clear field goal spot late) and the other side being way too dependent on their kicker (seven scoring drives, but all seven were field goals). The Ravens were covering their spread until a phantom face mask helped the Raiders to a scoring drive, and then eventually the game win when they got the ball back and scored again. The Texans were another cover that just didn’t happen when Cam Akers fumbled inside the 5-yard line late, losing a shot to potentially push that game to 16 points, and then we watched the Bears come and kick a field goal to make it a 6-point loss. Brutally conservative stuff from Houston in the second half of that game.
It was a 2-4-1 week. The Saints-Cowboys over crushed, and New England +3.5 was the right side in their overtime loss, despite only covering by the hook. Backing the Eagles on Monday night was the other big miss, and those things happen. Among other things, I hadn’t anticipated the Eagles would be without A.J. Brown when making that pick.
We’re at 5-7-1 in the early going, but Week 3 offers plenty of spots where we can leverage the early data points and trends to regress. I’m pumped for this slate.
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: PIT -2.5, -110 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, bet365)
Pick: Under 35.5, -115 (FanDuel)
It sounds like Justin Herbert is going to be able to give it a go in this one, and it has the line settling at 2.5, which feels like an opportunity. The Chargers are a team who have run the ball very well through two games against the Raiders and the Panthers, and now head to Pittsburgh for a different task. Getting the Steelers inside a field goal at home against a team built on rushing efficiency and with a hobbled Herbert feels pretty nice.
Of course, this also means backing an Arthur Smith offense, and how run heavy they will be if they do lead, which keeps teams in games. Inevitably, this will be a game the Steelers control, but Arthur Smith’s poor decisions will keep the door open for a 1- or 2-point victory that should have been double figures. Still, I gotta take this one in Pittsburgh. Justin Fields has looked like a perfect fit for Smith’s system, and Smith’s system a perfect fit for him.
They’re not scoring a lot of points, but this is the most functional Arthur Smith’s offense has been in a long time. On the other side, the Chargers’ offense is due for an early-season reality check. And we know whichever team leads will try to run the clock out with earnest, so we’re also taking the under, even at this low number.