Week 3 sides and totals
Plus a recap of Week 2
Week 3 is one of the more fascinating weeks of an NFL season I can remember. It’s like the schedule-makers knew what we’d see through two weeks and matched everything up for maximum Week 3 drama, and it feels like a week where we’ll find out a lot about these teams.
On one of my podcasts, Stealing Bananas, my cohost Shawn Siegele and I have talked since last year about the “haves and have nots” — this growing rift between the NFL teams willing to embrace a more modern way of organizing their offense, calling plays, and making in-game decisions versus the teams that are doing it the old way. I think we’re seeing that; at the end of last week’s column, I mentioned three heavy favorites I liked to cover but didn’t want to take as official picks because it was “still so early in the season to be banking on huge lines,” and all three teams went on to win by at least 17.
But in Week 3, the teams whose early results I’ve wanted to fade are overwhelmingly paired against opponents I don’t have faith backing. Some of the exciting upstart teams that look believable are going to be tested in a big way. Even some of the struggling-but-still-probably-good teams are paired up, with the Packers headed to visit the Buccaneers, and the Raiders down in Nashville for a matchup of two of last year’s playoff teams where the loser will fall to 0-3 to start this season.
Before we jump into the picks, a quick review. We got back in the black in Week 2 with a 3-2 record in this column. I complained about a few tough beats after the Week 1 column, so let me start here by celebrating the good fortune of that Falcons backdoor cover. Atlanta got a blocked punt return for a touchdown and two turnovers on the Rams’ side of the field, all in the second half, to cover the +10 after being down 28-3.
The other two wins last week were comfortable ones — Detroit covering vs. Washington, and the Ravens-Dolphins game going over — while the two losses also weren’t super close. The over in Panthers-Giants felt dead in the water when neither team could reach the end zone early, and seven of that game’s nine scores were field goals. The Browns-Jets didn’t stay under as eight of that game’s 10 scores were touchdowns. That’s not to defend either of those bets, but red zone conversion definitely matters because football is a game of possessions, and sometimes that just doesn’t go the way you’re hoping.
Last week’s 3-2 record on game picks coupled with the 2-4 in Week 1 brings us to 5-6 in this column so far. Because of my Week 1 Atlanta lean that I didn’t mention, I made it a point to mention those three leans at the end of last week’s column, and that just brought me to 4-0 on plays I’ve seriously considered but not taken. It’s a light week this week as a result of some really fascinating matchups, but I’m feeling good about where we sit with the league as a whole right now.
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Chiefs -5.5 (-110, widely available)
I took this pick early in the week at KC -6.5, anticipating the potential for the line to move past the touchdown mark, but we’ve only moved back. But I promised a writeup here in Substack, and for anyone who didn’t get it earlier, I’m more than happy to take the bet at -5.5 after it moved past a key number of 6.
One of the underrated parts to the Chiefs’ season has been a defense playing at a reasonably high level. They shut down the Cardinals in Arizona, for the most part, and then had an impressive showing against a very good Chargers team at home. Yes, without the 99-yard pick-six, the Chiefs would have likely lost that game, but I think the market is overreacting to a good football team getting fortunate as if there are bigger concerns here than should be.
The team we should all be concerned about is the Colts, who have started 0-1-1 against the two divisional opponents than all the references to the weak AFC South are always about — the Texans and Jaguars. Those were two road games, and the Colts get to return for a home opener that they know they need a win in, but this just hasn’t looked like a very good team. Matt Ryan in particular has struggled, and I’m not as high on the idea that Michael Pittman being out last week explains all of it. His return will help, but he’s not Superman.
The Chiefs are coming off a 10-day absence, and we know Andy Reid is a tough coach to bet against with extra time. After a Week 1 where their offense looked unstoppable, they very much were stoppable in Week 2, so I suspect they’ll have used that mini bye to come out with a sharp scheme. This line suggests the Chiefs aren’t going to catch the Colts off guard in their home opener, but the Chiefs are just the better team by a pretty wide margin, and I’m far more concerned about how the Colts didn’t have answers for Jacksonville, getting shut out one week after looking flat in Houston. That’s the team that’s going to rally and keep it close with Patrick Mahomes? I’ll have to see it to buy it.