Week 2 sides and totals
Plus a recap of Week 1, and an announcement
Before we jump into a recap of Week 1 and a look at Week 2 plays, I have a quick exciting announcement to share with you all, which I mentioned in Discord earlier today.
This year, we're partnering with Underdog to do a lot more content around their Pick 'Em game, which is an absolute blast. The best part is it's all gravy for you. All of the content we do around this will just be an addition to your current subscription at no extra cost. And then each week of the NFL season, Underdog is going to give away $100 in UD credits to one lucky member of the Stealing Lines family!
To be eligible for the giveaway, all we need you to do is fill out this Google Form, which is just basic info — your Underdog user name, your Discord handle, and the email associated with your Stealing Lines subscription. If you somehow haven't signed up for Underdog yet, you can use promo code "STEALINGLINES" on your first deposit and Underdog will match you 100% up to $100.
There's no catch — Underdog does an awesome job of taking care of their players, and that's why we're so excited to partner with them and bring this to you guys! And as part of that, we’re going to be giving away a bunch of money this year, so it's a great time to jump on their platform and get involved. More to come, including a Substack post from Dalton in the next day or so with some strategy thoughts and a few of our favorite entries for Week 2!
I loved Dalton’s card counting story in his post earlier today, and if you missed that, make sure to check it out. The moral of the story was about variance, and staying the course. I was disappointed with my Week 1 results on sides and totals, but I’ve also struggled in Week 1 most years, and I’ve been able to turn that around.
We went 1-4 last week, with the worst losses on the KC-DET over (not a great bet in hindsight) and SEA spread (they got trounced). The other two were a little tougher, including the Pittsburgh-San Francisco over 41, which failed to hit despite getting to 34 total points in the first minute of the second half. Only 3 more points were scored.
But undoubtedly the most frustrating outcome was the Titans’ moneyline. They wound up covering — which didn’t help us — but only because they settled for a late FG to cut a 4-point to 1, in a clear go-for-it spot where they wouldn’t get the ball back. On top of that, there was a pretty clear “open hand” fumble earlier in the game that the refs blew dead (you have to hate that) and then didn’t overturn the incomplete pass ruling on review, despite the whole booth — including Gene Steratore — being very confident they would at least award the turnover.
The Saints were able to kick a FG immediately after that, and anytime you have the booth openly saying, “That was a 10-point swing!” against the underdog you bet on the moneyline — because they should have had a fumble return for a touchdown, and instead gave up a field goal in what was ultimately a 1-point loss — you’re not loving that.
But we’re on to Week 2… where we’re already 0-1. I took the under on Thursday night, and the explosive plays came in the second half, which ensured it didn’t hit. But I felt confident after Week 1 I wanted to take some more unders in Week 2, and I’m not going to let that one game deter me.
Unders went 12-4 across the 16 Week 1 games. And obviously Vegas responds to these things — by my count, the average total in Week 1 was 45.25, but that number has cratered for Week 2 down to 43.34. Nearly two full points, on average, per game, from one week to the next. Clearly, Vegas is responding to the poor offensive environment we saw last week.
And that might make for an opportunity to hit some overs, as well. There’s an argument that with shorter preseasons, offenses were maybe just not as ready to go in Week 1 as they usually would be. But I’m not buying that. I’m significantly concerned about the short term offensive trends when there were so few counterpunches evident in Week 1 after a 2022 season that saw scoring down across the league. There are some minor things that might play out and lead to more scoring over time, but I’m ready to play some unders in Week 2.
Let’s get to the picks. I have a lot of them this week, and I want to get these out before it gets too late, so my writeups will be a little briefer than usual. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, and all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans
Pick: Under 45.5, -110 (widely available)
The Titans’ offense looked really bad last week, while the Chargers were a little more run heavy than we maybe would have liked to see. The matchup does align for a little more passing this week from the Chargers, but on the road in Tennessee, I think this becomes a slower game, particularly with Austin Ekeler doubtful and unable to help in the short passing game. He’ll be replaced by Joshua Kelley, who has looked better this year — since the preseason — but is still not a particularly dynamic player.
The Titans in particular project to go very run heavy against a Chargers’ defense that typically asks teams to run the ball on them. Derrick Henry should find some success, but I think Tennessee will be deliberate, and try to win this as a low-scoring game.