Week 2 sides and totals
Plus a recap of Week 1
Well, we got off to a slow start in this space, but at least we have Dalton’s props to more than keep us afloat. Dalton nailed the Saquon Barkley 40/1 for most rush yards last week which he had in the Discord as well as in the Weekly Specials email for you guys.
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Last week was a bit of a mixed bag in my sides and totals picks, as I went 2-4. Like a true gambler, I’ll always be biased, and I’m bummed it turned out that way. There was one real bad miss (Patriots over Dolphins) but the other three were all a few plays away.
I’m maybe most annoyed by losing the low-total under in the Browns-Panthers game, because that’s a tough bet to take and yet I think the analysis was sound. The Browns mostly controlled the tempo, but weren’t strong through the air, which limited the Panthers to just 50 total plays. Baker Mayfield wasn’t great in his Carolina debut, but he wound up hitting Ian Thomas for a 50-yard completion to set up a short Christian McCaffrey touchdown in the final two minutes of the first half, and then Robbie Anderson for a 75-yard score in a fourth quarter that saw 23 total points scored after just 27 in the first three periods. Explosive plays are always going to be the death knell of a low-total under, even when both offenses struggle.
On the flip side, we had a low-total over in the Bears-49ers game, and I released those picks very early before heading out for Vegas. It was pretty unfortunate to see the weather in that game, naturally. And then the Monday night pick of Broncos -6 certainly looks bad given they lost outright, but man, they out-gained the Seahawks 433 to 253 and fumbled at the goal-line twice in the third quarter. In true degen fashion, I maintain they should have won by 10+.
The insult to injury was there was one play I had written up but deleted before sending, due to an uncertain injury situation. Drake London was pretty questionable early last week when I made my picks, so I decided to back off my Falcons +5.5 stance against a Saints’ team I’m not real in on. London is pretty notable for a Falcons team I kind of like, because he gives them a third legit offensive weapon to pair with Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson, and he had a strong career debut, catching five of seven targets for 74 yards as Pitts drew some Marshon Lattimore in coverage. But I failed to get that pick added later in the week like I should have.
I’m definitely not asking for credit for a pick I didn’t make or even mention, but for what it’s worth that’s the only pick I considered last week that I didn’t make. The bigger reason I mention it is we’re starting the Week 2 card by officially taking that Atlanta team this week.
As with last week, all minus bets are bet to win one unit, and all plus bets are risk one unit.
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Falcons +10.5 (-110, WynnBET)
Also playable at the widely available +10
This line has moved, and I’ve been late to the punch this week, so props if you got in above 10 or can still get in at WynnBET. The Rams didn’t look great in the opener, and while I’m optimistic for a bounceback, the Falcons did look competitive in a way I am kind of buying.
Jalen Ramsey presents a real challenge to any team’s opposing top WR, but as alluded to above, the Falcons have two young playmakers that should make it more difficult to shut down their passing attack. Marcus Mariota brings a dual threat element to their offense that played up last week, and Patterson looked every bit as dynamic as he was last year out of the backfield.
On the Rams’ side of the ball, Matthew Stafford looked rusty after his elbow issues limited him in August, and both Allen Robinson and Cam Akers were nonexistent as pieces of the offense. As the Rams fell behind the Bills, Stafford had to resort to a bunch of checkdowns, largely to Tyler Higbee, who frankly isn’t all that great of a player himself and had two bad drops. Cooper Kupp can bury us on this bet by himself, but if the Falcons can at least contain him, the Rams do not look like an offense that has a lot else in the cupboard.
The last note I want to add, while minor, is Arthur Smith had some funny Week 1 postgame press conference quotes where he sort of questioned the doubters — despite blowing a lead and losing late. All I’m saying is if I’m taking a team plus double digits, their head coach being way too aware of his team’s perception is something I like to see. Backdoor cover is squarely in play where these guys are going to fight to lose more respectably if they are down 14 points late.