Week 18 Props
Wrapping up the regular season with a profitable process and one final push
The football season flew by, and suddenly we’ve reached the final week of the regular season. Last week we finished 3–2 once again. Quentin Johnston went way over, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt unfortunately busted our under with a single big run, but the other three plays came through.
For the season, we’re 46–36, up 5.34 units with a 5.71% ROI. I’d always like the record and ROI to be higher, but there was a learning curve with this being my first year sending out NFL bets.
The early part of the season reflected that. Through Weeks 1–4, we went 8–11 and were down 4.52 units. Since the start of Week 5, though, we’re up 9.86 units with a 13.73% ROI, which better reflects the process and the edge we’ve been working toward.
It’s been a fun ride, and I hope you’ve enjoyed it as much as I have. Sweating bets is one of the best forms of entertainment, but beyond that, I hope you’ve picked up something along the way about how to approach betting analytically — building arguments, understanding variance, and focusing on process over short-term results.
Part of the goal was always to help you learn how to find these spots on your own as well.
Let’s close out the regular season strong with the Week 18 props.
Week 18 Player Props
1U Rico Dowdle under 57.5 Rushing Yards (DK -111)
With Chuba Hubbard in the lineup, this is a line that Dowdle hasn’t consistently covered. Since his hot stretch, he’s gone under this line in 5 of his last 7, averaging 47.3 rushing yards.
His lowest output came against the Buccaneers two weeks ago, where he ran just 9 times for 29 yards. Despite winning the game, the Panthers had just 15 running back rush attempts compared to 38 Bryce Young drop backs. The Bucs are a pass-funnel.
In addition to a lack of productivity, Dowdle is banged up. Coach Dave Canales said the following (h/t Coachspeak Index):
“Rico Dowdle has a sore toe. Came out of the game a little bit more sore than normal, so we just decided to give him a rest day. I’m pretty confident that he’ll be able to go this week, but we gotta take it day by day and see what he can do tomorrow.”
Canales also talked about getting Hubbard more involved:
“Chuba Hubbard is an absolute stud, he’s one of the leaders of our group. He certainly challenges the whole group by how he works and how he prepares. I love Chuba. Gonna give him the ball some more and find ways for him to impact the game, because he’s just a guy that I really trust.”
Banged up with a tough matchup, this is a good opportunity to fade Dowdle.
Collab with Connor Allen from 4for4
Best Current Line: Under 55.5 MGM -115