Week 18 Bets
This edition is going to be super short as Week 18 was once one of the betting weeks of the year with player incentives and other fun ways to take advantage of uncertainty in this final week.
Now it’s Sunday morning and there’s plenty of games that aren’t even offering player props.
I’ll be doing a full season long review in the coming weeks.
I really only have one angle I like right now and it’s a study I did last year
A Hidden Edge in Week 18 to Capitalize on + Bets
There’s lots of talk about incentives being a big edge in Week 18 and it is… until every single person in the entire world knows about the incentives before the sportsbooks release lines. What once was a big edge (and still might be) will undoubtedly start to dwindle in the coming years as sportsbooks become sharper and more aware.
Basically if you’re a rookie wide receiver drafted in the top three rounds and your team is out of playoff contention we see those players have bigger days.
We went 7-1 on the overs last year and even bet a lot of alternate lines for these rookies which ended up hitting.
Only Jalin Hyatt and Michael Wilson have lines available that fit this criteria right now. If Quentin Johnston or Marvin Mims had lines dropped they would also qualify and would be bets.
Jalin Hyatt over 22.5 receiving yards -110 (Fanduel) + Hyatt 50+ receiving yards +390 (DraftKings)
Giants are eliminated and Hyatt ran by far his most routes of the season last week.
Would expect him to get plenty of playing time against a poor Eagles secondary.
Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Play to 24.5
Risk .2 units to win .78 unit on 50+ yards
Michael Wilson over 36.5 receiving yards -115 (DraftKings) + Wilson 80+ receiving yards +700 (DraftKings)
Wilson has been getting a blend of consistent targets each week and deep shots.
Unfortunately he hasn’t hit on a deep play in recent weeks, but it’s possible he receives more work here in essentially a meaningless game for the Cardinals.
All it takes is one play.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Play to 38.5
Risk .2 units to win 1.4 units on 80 yards