Week 17 sides and totals
Thin week but a few options to play
Way back in the Week 1 version of this column, I detailed my past results, and wrote about how I’d historically done well from a couple of weeks into the season through about the midway point or beyond it, but then tended to struggle over the final month or six weeks.
It’s wild how much that’s followed again this season. I wrote last week about how we’ve been stuck in the mud for several weeks, and we entered Week 16 having gone .500 from a win-loss perspective on sides and totals in four of the five weeks prior to last week. Well, we went 3-4 last week, and in some ways it felt like a fortunate 3-4, with the Miami-Green Bay under hitting in a way that felt particularly lucky. That said, two of the losses were by 1.5 points, and they were doozies.
One — the over in the Bengals-Patriots game — featured four missed extra points, with one featuring a defensive penalty that led to a 2-point conversion try that was also missed. There was another 2-point conversion try in this game that was failed, such that of the six touchdowns, just one added any points after the score. I’ve never seen anything like it. Five out of six touchdowns went for 6 points, not 7 or 8, and we missed our over by 1.5 in the end. Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned the missed field goal in the fourth quarter, and also the Rhamondre Stevenson fumble on first-and-goal from the 5-yard line with just over a minute left. Just an all-timer.
By comparison, Mike McCarthy being enough of a donkey to kick a field goal to go up 6 with just under two minutes left when faced with a fourth-and-goal from the 3-yard line to help the Cowboys cover the official PHI +4.5 ticket we held was child’s play. In my opinion — and in the opinion of nearly every observer I saw chime in on Twitter — Dallas should have gone for it in that spot, which even if it failed would have pinned the Eagles against their own goal line. Instead, they took the 3 points, kicked a touchback, and gave the Eagles more room to work and an incentive to go on all fourth downs to try to win, versus potentially settling to try to force overtime. From a game theory perspective, I like the go there by a mile, particularly because if Dallas does score it more or less ends the game right there. Incidentally, it would have also basically locked in PHI +4.5, but we can’t have nice things.
I talk a lot about how close some of these are, so let’s also note that taking the Lions as road favorites in Carolina proved to be a huge miss. That wasn’t even close; no excuses there.
Anyway, the 3-4 week makes it six straight weeks with a net loss, with four of those being .500 weeks that are obviously losses of just fractions of a unit (the vig). But still, prior to this cold streak, we’d been profitable in 8 of the 9 weeks between Week 2 and Week 10.
For the season, we now sit at 43-38-3 on sides and totals, for +1.85 units. I feel like the process has been fine for the most part — the leans have run hotter than the official picks, going well above .500 for the year, and I do think we’ve had a few more bad beats than lucky breaks on the official picks, as much as that is what every bettor thinks (it’s of course true for some people).
There have been mistakes through the season — it was a pretty big misstep to not be on more unders early in the season, even as lines started to drop, because the shifts in the way defenses were playing has had a profound impact on the whole league. Toward the latter part of the season, I started taking more overs on lines in the thirties, and those haven’t hit at a great rate — that, too, was probably a process misstep, if you buy that the sport has shifted. If that’s the case, you’d expect lines to drop, and the ones that get into the thirties are representative of the clearest teams and offenses to play as low scoring. It could be said that in those cases, the lines should be even lower, but lines in the thirties already feel outlier-ish so the market hadn’t shifted down enough in those cases. That’s at least a reasonable hindsight explanation.
Anyway, bits and pieces of the process haven’t been perfect when I look back, and I know there have been missed opportunities in what’s been a weird season. At the same time, I’m comfortable with the portfolio of bets overall, and that’s the part where I’d defend getting our money in good.
I’m also looking forward to the postseason. But for now, with the season coming to a close, let’s look at the Week 17 plays.
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders
Pick: CLE moneyline, +112 (BetRivers)
Washington is going back to Carson Wentz this week, while Cleveland is coming off a cold weather game where the passing game looked as bad as it has all year, and people are starting to rightfully question Deshaun Watson.
I think the quarterback gap here is ultimately quite large. Wentz has shown he is not very good, though he does have the ability to look good in short stints — and I’m a bit concerned he could in this spot with his back against the wall and some potential to recuperate his whole image if he wins two home games and gets Washington into the playoffs.
That said, I think Watson has plenty to prove in these final two weeks as well, and I think there’s a lot more reason to expect him to play better. He’s now played four games after not playing for two years, which is about the number of reps you might expect him to need to get up to speed, and last week’s weather game might be masking that a bit. Late in that loss to the Saints, Watson made a good read and perfect throw to Amari Cooper for what would have been the game-tying touchdown, but Cooper just flat lost his footing in the end zone.
The Browns are also healthier than the Saints, with just Jadeveon Clowney carrying an injury designation. He’s questionable with an illness after missing last week to a concussion.