Week 17 Props
Holiday variance, strong CLV, and trusting the process into Week 17
Happy holidays, everyone! Hope you had a relaxing week and were able to spend time with loved ones.
We finished last week at 3–2, but variance continues to test us. The Geno Smith under 196.5 passing yards play was a tough one — it missed by five yards on his final pass attempt, a 14-yard completion. It was a strong play that closed all the way down at 180.5 passing yards. I’d take that bet every time, but unfortunately, that’s part of the game — and it got us again on Christmas.
On Christmas Day, I played Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 61.5 rushing yards after Chris Rodriguez was ruled out with an illness. As always, I’ve included the full breakdown below. It was another strong process play. Croskey-Merritt had just 13 yards at halftime before breaking a 72-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. Outside of that one play, he finished with 33 yards on 10 carries. The Cowboys’ defense had a single breakdown, and that was enough to flip the result. It’s another loss I’m completely comfortable with — the process was right, even if the outcome wasn’t.
After a few weeks of rough variance, we’re due for some positive regression. Even starting this week at 0–1, I feel good about the rest of the card.
Let’s get into Week 17.
Week 17 Player Props
1U Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 61.5 Rushing Yards (MGM -110), 61.5 -121 on Caesars, 60.5 also playable on DK
Quick write up but wanted to get this one out ASAP. Obviously his workload increases with Rodriguez out but this is a number he shouldn’t hit.
The Cowboys have been a different beast with Quinnen Williams. Since he was acquired in Week 11, they’ve allowed the following to starting RBs:
Jeanty 7 rushing yards
Saquon 22 rushing yards
Gibbs 43 rushing yards
Aaron Jones 34 rushing yards
Williams was out last week against the Chargers. This one has all the ingredients: bad QB play on his team, underdogs against a superior team with bad game-script possibilities, underrated run D. I expect the Cowboys to control this game, in addition to being the pass funnel that they’ve been with Williams on the field.
1U Quentin Johnston under 37.5 Receiving Yards (MGM -110), 36.5 -114 on FD also playable
After a hot start to the season, Quentin Johnston has cooled off, covering this line in just one of his last four games. In his return from injury, he had a big game against the Cowboys, which may be the single most favorable matchup for opposing WRs. Even in that game, he had just five targets.
The Texans may be the single worst matchup. The Texans lead the NFL in EPA per pass play. They’re allowing the 9th fewest yards to opposing WRs. Based on where they typically play, I expect him to draw Derek Stingley, one of the league’s best cornerbacks.
After consistently playing 80%+ of the snaps early in the season, QJ has played 67%, 76% and 58% over the last three games. Over his last four games, QJ has drawn 3, 3, 3, and 5 targets. Slowly exciting second-round pick Tre Harris is gaining work – still playing 45% of the snaps in QJ’s return last week. Greg Roman has also spoken glowingly about Harris.
The total for this game is 39.5, which would be the lowest closing total points line for the Chargers all season. QJ has gone under in 3 of 4 games with a closing total points line of 44 of less.
This isn’t a good offensive spot, and I don’t expect the Chargers to be playing from behind in pass-heavy situations. The Texans struggled to score on the Raiders at home this week so the Chargers on the road shouldn’t be an easy task.
The Texans have one of the league’s best pass rushes so the ball will need to get out quickly. I think this matchup is more suited for Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen. I don’t think this is a game where QJ can get by on low volume.
Best Current Line: Under 35.5 MGM -115