Finally a great week happened as we were up 6.96 units and felt like things went our way for once.
On the main plays we went 9-2 and both of those losses were actually quite a bit unlucky.
We lost on Diontae Johnson’s over as Rudolph missed him wide open for what seemingly was a 70 yard TD.
And we lost Kyler’s under on the last play of the game which didn’t ultimately matter as Kyler was scrambling away from pressure and was essentially going to be sacked.
As he was rolling away against his body he basically shoveled the pass to the open space on the sideline and Emari Demarcado happened to be in that area in which he caught the ball and ran for 20+ yards with no time remaining to lose the bet.
On the other hand we had quite a few lucky wins this week.
We had the under on Stafford attempts this week and this bet was dead in the water as Stafford had 27 attempts with 12:00 remaining in the 3rd quarter. The Rams had such high play volume and were in massive control of this game.
They constantly ran the ball after and on the last drive there was a 3rd and 12 and instead of throwing it they ran it to preserve the win of under 34.5 attempts.
The next two that won were only wins on the original lines we got them at. On all of my plays I’ll add caveats at the end saying to which “number” or “line” I would play it to or feel there is still value in the play.
On both of these the original lines one, but the other lines lost. So I’m sorry if you weren’t able to get the original lines on these. It’s why it’s important to be in our Discord if you’re a subscriber as that’s where I place all the up to the minute bets and notify when they are placed.
We had Brock Purdy under 255.5 passing yards and again this seemed screwed when he had half of this within the first 17 minutes of the game. On a drive in the 4th quarter Purdy got a “stinger” and sat out the rest of the game despite being in negative game script.
He finished with 255 passing yards.
I was getting flashbacks to earlier weeks when things seemingly couldn’t go right when we bet the over on Chris Rodriguez 9.5 attempts on the day and the Commanders were down 17-0 within the first 7 minutes of the game.
Somehow they battled their way back and up one point very late in the fourth quarter decided to be extremely conservative and force the Jets to use their timeouts instead of trying to get a first down to essentially put the game away.
In this process Rodriguez got two carries and finished with exactly 10 on the day and because of this we won, but also the Commanders lost due to their conservative play calling.
Underdog Pick ‘Em of the Week
We have a little different style here this week with some anti-correlation.
Underdog has changed a lot of their payouts in regards to correlation so we can’t necessarily do some of the same type of Pick ‘Em anymore that we used to.
But one thing that’s really cool is they also adjust in favor of you for odds if you decide to do some anti correlation.
Instead of the normal five player Pick ‘Em payout being 20x, this one above is 24.6x.
We’re getting a game script stack in the JAX/CAR game and Purdy’s under attempts is one of my favorite plays of the week, but I’m expecting him to be wildly efficient when he does indeed throw the ball so I wanted to choose an over on yards for his receivers and Kittle has the lowest threshold.
Best Bets
CJ Beathard under 223.5 passing yards -115 (MGM)
Since week 8 the Panthers have turned into a much better pass defense. They rank 3rd in pass yards per game allowed and are first in explosive pass rate allowed all while being the 6th biggest run funnel defense.
I mentioned last week that if you blindly bet the QB under against the Panthers this year you’d now be 14-1.
Running it back again in an inflated line for someone of Beathard’s caliber especially now with another weapon in Zay Jones out.
Should be around low 210s.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Play to 217.5