I pulled this week’s $100 Underdog winner yesterday, and it was Paul Adair. Congrats!
For anyone who hasn’t signed up yet, sign up at this form one time this season and you’ll be entered into our weekly $100 giveaways all year long, thanks to Underdog and their super fun Pick’em game.
Last week’s results were a little frustrating, with two clear wins (DET and LAR spreads), one clear loss (ATL/CAR over), and three other picks that were close, but all went for losses. The Falcons failed to cover -3 (and went on to lose) when Desmond Ridder threw a red zone interception late in regulation, where a field goal would have meant a 4-point lead against a team that hadn’t scored an offensive TD all day (and had scored just three in their previous five games coming in). In other words, a 10-6 lead that would have forced Carolina to go for it on any fourth down might have held up.
The CLE-CHI over missed an early bomb to Robert Tonyan who flat dropped it, but still had a chance late when a last-second Hail Mary went nearly incomplete. If the Bears could have moved just a bit further into field goal range, forcing OT would have also got us there. And then on Monday night, the Eagles were a first down away from icing the game, but punted to Drew Lock, who drove 93 yards for a game-winning TD, to turn another potential -3 cover into an outright loss.
Oh well, those are the breaks, and it’s what I get for tempting fate by noting I’d gone four straight weeks without a losing record. Finishing 2-4 there, but hitting on the Thursday Night Football bet in Discord to kick off Week 16, brings us to 43-50-1 for the year. Still trying to climb out of that early hole, but it’s not over yet.
Let’s get to the Week 16 bets. Was happy to get the TNF winner, because I don’t have a lot more on the board that I love this week. A note that I’m trying to force unders every week, but so often the ones you want to take are down closer to 35 than even 40, and it’s just so gross. As such, I wound up with no unders this week.
As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: BUF -12, -110 (PointsBet)
Also playable at -12.5
We’re going to start with a pick for tonight’s game, and it’s not one you love with a huge spread. But the Chargers are in shambles, and I don’t expect the fired-coach bounce to help them. Keenan Allen has been their only reliable pass-catcher all year, and he’s out again, which gives Easton Stick no help. Austin Ekeler hasn’t been the same guy since his injury. This just isn’t a good team on offense.
And they are probably worse defensively. Meanwhile, the Bills were able to win last week with a very run-heavy gameplan, but you know Josh Allen’s going to want to throw the ball around a little more this week. The Bills are hyper-focused and know they have no more games to give up. I expect them to get out to an early lead, and also for the Chargers to have a hard time putting together anything late that would help a backdoor cover.
Big spreads are tough to pick, but I’ve gotten more open to it when I see favorites I think are highly motivated, and underdogs who just seem done. I’ve got this one finishing with at least a 14-point margin, but probably three scores. If you don’t love the big spread, the other way to play the Chargers being done would be the under, expecting a slow second half. But I think the Bills might be into the thirties by the third quarter here, and we might finish something like 35-17.