Week 16 sides and totals
Some plays for the holidays
I mentioned in last week’s intro we’ve been treading water lately, including going 2-2 the week prior. But I’d gone 0-2 in Discord on the Saturday slate, so it was looking like a bad week. Honestly, I would’ve preferred that to another .500 week I think. We went 2-0-1 Sunday to finish 2-2-1 for the week.
The best part is all three leans I had at the bottom of the column hit, and I mentioned another lean in the Discord chat on Saturday (the over in Miami-Buffalo), so I had to settle for a .500 record with the four leans I considered going 4-0. What an absolute idiot.
Honestly, I’d just fade me at this point, because now I have the itch to make any pick I’ve even considered. I’m also writing this while hanging out with family, so the explanations will be brief this week.
We’re at 40-34-3 for the season. Here are the Week 16 picks.
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns
Pick: CLE -2.5, -122 (FanDuel)
Also playable at -3
The weather is supposed to be terrible in this game, with the total dropping to the low 30s. I considered the over in this one, but I’m not sure that’s all that incorrect.
I like playing the Browns instead because in a game where rushing attacks will be more important, the mobility Deshaun Watson offers is a significant advantage. We saw the Browns use him a bit in that way last week, as well as bringing in Jacoby Brissett for a QB sneak, so they have multiple ways to play that element alongside Nick Chubb and their usually effective rushing attack.
The counter is obviously Taysom Hill. Alvin Kamara is a strong running back, but he’s past his prime, and even in his best days when he was a clear top-three RB in the NFL, I’m not sure he was ever a top-three or top-five pure rusher. It’s always a bit different when you’re expecting big things out of him on the ground, especially at this stage of his career.
But Hill could be a key player for New Orleans. Still, with the Saints being without Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry, and with Andy Dalton’s lack of mobility a mitigating factor, they won’t even be able to sell the pass in 30 mph winds. Cleveland’s run defense has left a lot to be desired all season, but this is a spot where they will be able to sell out a bit more than usual against a rushing attack that’s not exactly elite on the other side. I expect a low-scoring game, but I like the Browns to cover at home.