Week 16 Props
A tough week of variance, strong CLV, and staying committed to the process
Last week was an interesting one, to say the least. In the early games, we had Harold Fannin being targeted relentlessly. Despite seeing 14 targets, it still took a miraculous fourth-quarter catch for him to go over by one yard with 48 receiving yards. Even though it was a sweat, the result went our way.
Unfortunately, the other sweats weren’t as kind. Jonathan Taylor was probably the weakest bet on the card, though I still don’t regret it. It took 25 carries and a tightly contested game for him to finally go over in the fourth quarter. Like Vegas, I expected Seattle to control the game throughout — instead, it came down to a last-second field goal. Relying on Seattle’s offense to create separation may not have been the most prudent assumption, but it’s one I was comfortable making at home.
Josh Jacobs was another frustrating one. We bet under 85.5 rushing + receiving yards, and the line closed all the way down at 77.5 — excellent CLV. Jacobs finished with just 12 carries, his second-fewest of the season, but broke his longest run of the year at 40 yards. Prior to that, he hadn’t had a run of 30+ yards all season and hadn’t logged a longer rush since November 2023. He also caught a 14-yard touchdown — easily his most impressive reception of the season. Even with all of that, he still didn’t go over until the fourth quarter.
As frustrating as Jacobs was, Christian McCaffrey under 72.5 rushing yards was the toughest loss of the week. The line closed at 66.5 and he sat comfortably under all game. Up 10 late against the Titans, McCaffrey received three carries on the 49ers’ final drive. His last carry — a six-yard rush — pushed him over by a single yard.
Aaron Jones went under comfortably in the Sunday game, leaving us at 2–3 on the week. Those losses sting, and I hate losing, but based on the closing line value and the reasoning behind the plays, I’d make them again. Variance hasn’t been kind lately — we’re due for it to swing back our way.
Let’s get on to Week 16.
Week 16 Player Props
1U Geno Smith under 196.5 Passing Yards (FD -114)
Geno Smith has played poorly this season. He’s averaging 203.7 passing yards per game, down to 181.7 in the last 10 games. He’s under this line in 7 of 13 games overall. Against top-28 defenses in pass yards, he’s under in 7 of 10. Against top-19 defenses, he’s under in 6 of 8 games.
The Texans are allowing the 5th fewest passing yards and are arguably the league’s best defense. These is what they’ve allowed to opposing passers after the first three weeks:
Week 4: Cam Ward 108 passing yards
Week 5: Cooper Rush 179 passing yards
Week 7: Sam Darnold 213 passing yards
Week 8: Mac Jones 193 passing yards
Week 9: Bo Nix 173 passing yards
Week 10: Trevor Lawrence 158 passing yards
Week 11: Cam Ward 194 passing yards
Week 12: Josh Allen 253 passing yards
Week 13: Daniel Jones 201 passing yards
Week 14: Patrick Mahomes 160 passing yards
Week 15: Jacoby Brissett 253 passing yards 7 of 11 went under.
This is a high line for a passer that has struggled consistently against arguably the league’s best defense. This defense is ferocious and I don’t think the Raiders have the personnel to push them.
