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Last week, we went 4-2-1, including a perfect 3-0 on game totals and only 1-2-1 on sides. Even though I’d been very hot on sides and extremely cold on game totals, I knew it was important to maintain some balance between the two and let some things smooth out.
That makes a month straight without a losing weekly record, and over those four weeks we’re 16-8-1 to climb back to 40-46-1 for the season. I am more superstitious than I have any right to be, so I try not to talk about a streak or anything like that, but I mean it’s all flawed and it would be silly to think reviewing positive results would negatively impact the future. Right??
At any rate, my goal of still getting back to a profitable year despite starting 1-13 over the first two weeks does seem plausibly within reach. And I have some picks I’m pretty excited about again this week, despite the market adjusting to some of our favorite things to hit, like Washington’s overs (they’re over 50 this week!). I’m hopeful to keep chipping away at it.
Another way to look at this is through the lens of what I wrote about after those disastrous first two weeks — “drawing a line on the scorecard” and starting over from Week 3. And I’m happy to report we’ve been profitable since that point, up a little more than 4 units.
With four more weeks and then four playoff weeks, there’s a lot of football left to play. Let’s get to the Week 15 bets. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions
Pick: DET -4.5, -110 (widely available)
This spread certainly gives the Lions some respect after losing two of their past three, with a one-score win in between, and given the Broncos have won six of their past seven since sitting at 1-5. But Denver has been thriving on hyper-efficiency in the pass game, particularly with Russell Wilson’s 6.1% pass TD rate. The Lions don’t have a great pass defense, but efficiency regresses multiple ways; the one-handed long TD catch by Courtland Sutton last week is a great example of the type of play you can’t bank on every week.
I also buy Detroit as a different team at home, and importantly, indoors. Splits can be misleading, but here’s why I buy it here: It fits with everything we know about Jared Goff. For all I know it might just be a mental block for Goff, but I do think there’s something there that makes it tougher on him outdoors.
What we know about this guy is he’s not bad — he’s typically an efficient passer when in the right rhythm — but he’s also the same guy who came off like a dork on Hard Knocks not knowing which direction the sun rose and set in, and perhaps more relevant, he’s the guy Sean McVay decided he needed to replace because of his limitations. But again, Goff doesn’t suck.
The suggestion is clearly that he thrives in the right conditions, but can be taken out of that. Thus, for him specifically, even if the splits data isn’t great in the aggregate, I’m willing to buy the small sample trends we have. And then I like him to bounce back at home, and for the whole offense to follow suit, even with Denver’s defense playing better of late. The rest of the matchup does favor Detroit, as well, who are just the better team.