Week 15 sides and totals
Looking at the Sunday and Monday games
Well, we keep treaded water lately, as last week’s picks went 2-2. For anyone not yet in Discord, first of all, you should be, and secondly you missed me adding San Francisco to the three picks in last week’s column.
That brought us to 38-32-2 on sides and totals this year, but then I also took Minnesota -3.5 and the under in the early Saturday game, so we’ve slid back to 38-34-2, and those of you not yet in the Discord were lucky to miss that debacle.
Let’s get into the Week 15 picks for Sunday and Monday.
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
Pick: Under 48.5, -108 (FanDuel)
You understand the high total here given the way the Bears’ defense has played since the trade deadline, and how electric Justin Fields has been on the other side. But there are several factors here that work against a high-scoring affair.
First, the Eagles are favored by a considerable margin, and they have no issue turning into a high PROE team when leading late in games, meaning going run heavy and ending the game quickly. That will be easier than usual in this matchup as they have a massive line advantage.
Second, the game is in very cold weather, which doesn’t always matter but certainly can limit things some, especially if there’s already a trend toward the run.
And third, the Bears also have a huge line disadvantage offensively, and are without Chase Claypool, Khalil Herbert, and of course Darnell Mooney this week. Fields has kind of been on his own all year, but he’s someone more on his own than ever in this one. I think he can still do some electric stuff and it’s why I’m not laying the points with the Eagles, because a backdoor cover feels in play. But if the Eagles get out to a sizeable lead and we’re talking about a backdoor cover situation, I’m hoping the game has slowed enough that whether that hits or not will not even play into the under, e.g. it’s 27-13 late or something.