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We started Week 13 looking good, with an early 3-1 record including 2-0 on totals, which was a miracle. From there, though, it got worse, with a 3-3 final for the week, and 1-3 on sides/moneylines.
That brings us to 36-44 on the season, with the spreads and moneylines still solidly profitable at a 25-18 combined record (+6.47 units) and the over/unders still a disaster at 11-26 (-17.56).
Let’s get to the Week 14 bets. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Over 39.5, -108 (DraftKings)
This number was bet down pretty aggressively on weather risk, but there appears to be positive news in the forecast, where the game might miss the worst of the weather. To be clear, there’s likely to be rain and some wind during gametime, but Rotogrinders’ Kevin Roth talked up the potential for the stadium itself missing the worst of it, as it might hit both east and west of the game.
The other reason to like this is simply because you have two competent offenses with capable QBs. One of the things I’ve come to accept about overs and unders in 2023 is so much of it comes down to QB play and the ability to efficiently score points; getting a game with two such offenses at a sub-40 total is obviously intriguing.
There are risks with the weather, and also with the Rams traveling across the country and the potential for a blowout, as bigger point differentials typically mean lower totals. But the Ravens have scored 30+ in four straight home games, all played within their past six games, and they are coming out of a bye here. They’ll still be adjusting to life without Mark Andrews, but I do think they’ll have a shot to put up solid numbers in this one.
The Rams, for their part, have gotten better since the return of Kyren Williams. We don’t need a fantastic offensive effort from either side, just enough to get us over 40.