Week 14 sides and totals
Plus a Week 13 recap
We fired off quite a few plays last week, and finished 6-7. It was looking bleak in the early games, as we missed both sides of two different games, in very different ways.
The Steelers-Bengals game was a reminder that sometimes you’re just way off. It’s been a while since I’ve felt that wrong about a game — I definitely have misses where it’s clear I’m on the wrong side of it, but we had the under in that and it was an immediate, clear shootout, plus we laid 2.5 with Cincinnati and they were chasing all game.
The other one was Texans-Jaguars, where Texans -3.5 and the over were arguably both right. The Jaguars were obviously put in a tough spot by Trevor Lawrence’s concussion, and that also didn’t push Houston at all. It was 23-6 before Jacksonville scored TDs on two garbage-time fourth-quarter drives to stay under the total by a point and complete the nasty backdoor cover, forcing both bets into the loss column by a combined point and a half.
But we comfortably hit a pair of unders in the late games, then blew past the over on Monday Night Football, to salvage the week a little. Thursday Night Football also gave us our easy over to start this week 1-0.
For the season, we’re up to 56-47-4 and +4.72 units. That’s 30-27 on sides, and 25-20-1 on totals, with a 20-13-1 record on the over really the deciding factor this year. Underdog spread and moneyline bets are solid at 8-5-1 for the year, while favorites are dead even (so down in units) at 22-22-2. Unders have clawed back a little, and I haven’t taken a ton this year, but 5-7 is the record there.
Let’s get to the Week 15 picks. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.