Week 14 sides and totals
Plus a recap of Week 13
Tough week in Week 13, with a 2-2-1 finish. The push was probably the toughest pill to swallow, as the Giants and Commander tied at 20-20. If that game is decided, the over 40 hits, and I know for many of you it was 40.5, so it wasn’t even a push, but a loss, when those two teams played the overtime period like they were afraid of their offenses losing the game for them. What a joke that was.
We also missed the over in the Steelers and Falcons matchup despite nine scoring drives, thanks to seven of them ending in field goals rather than touchdowns. And then the Chiefs fell to the Bengals outright, failing to cover the -2 there. Travis Kelce’s fourth quarter fumble with a lead led directly to the Bengals’ go-ahead touchdown, and then the Chiefs had to settle for a long field goal on their next (and final) drive, which could have tied the game up and potentially forced overtime, but it fell short. Poor execution down the stretch for them, and the loss also hurts our Chiefs’ futures, with the most extreme alt line we took (over 13.5 wins) now only gettable if they win out. They do have a nice stretch the rest of the way, and the other futures all look great.
The two wins last week were comfortable, with the Lions running away from the Jaguars, and the under in the Browns/Texans matchup hitting despite a late push thanks in part to a return touchdown and two more defensive touchdowns for the Browns. When you hit an under despite three return touchdowns, you have to feel pretty good about being on the right side of it.
The week takes us to 36-30-2 on the year, which the official tracker has at +3.66 units. It’s not massive, but if your unit size is $20, that’d pay for more than half of your annual Stealing Lines subscription. Of course, Dalton is up +18.31 units on the year over on the props side of things, and we’ve added NBA and are already stoked for the offseason markets including the NFL Draft, so we’ve got you covered.
Let’s get to the Week 14 picks. It’s a tough week with a bunch of divisional clashes, but I have a few picks for you, plus some leans at the bottom.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Pick: NYJ +10, -107 (PointsBet)
I have to be honest, this line feels almost too enticing, and it worries me a bit. Certainly we know the Bills can win games going away.
The arguments in favor are reasonably simple. The Jets have a tremendous defense; one that hasn’t allowed more than 220 net passing yards to any team since the Bengals in Week 3. In their upset win over the Bills in Week 9, they held Josh Allen to 205 passing yards, and the Bills to 183 net passing yards thanks to five sacks for 22 yards. Of course, Allen also ran for 86 yards and two scores on just nine attempts, so it wasn’t like the Jets completely contained him.
The other side of the equation is Mike White has elevated the offense over what Zach Wilson brought. That’s not to argue White is a special player, but rather that he is able to make use of the really impressive skill position group the Jets have in a way Wilson was unable to. Offensively, the Jets have posted 466 and 486 total yards over the past two weeks, after Wilson’s last start against New England resulted in 103 total yards, the fewest by any team in any game this season. Prior to that, the Jets had not had a 400-yard offensive performance since Joe Flacco was under center in Week 2 at Cleveland.
The argument is not that the Jets are good, but the defense is pretty legit, and Garrett Wilson is a budding superstar. The argument is simply in a divisional contest where the teams know each other well, the Jets are better-positioned than a 10-point line indicates. The Bills beat the Patriots by 14 last week, but you have to go all the way back to Week 5 to find the last time, prior to that, where they won by more than 10. In an outdoor game in Buffalo in December, with temperatures in the thirties and a little wind to go with some rain and possibly snow showers late — plus a matchup that dictates more rushing than usual — the smart money’s on this being a tighter game than this spread indicates.